Research On The Optimization Strategy Of China’s Dairy Products Import Trade Pattern

With the rising demand for a healthy quality of life,China’s dairy products market has huge potential for consumption.Due to the rigid constraints on domestic production resources,China’s domestic dairy supply is not sufficient to meet the growing consumer demand,so the scale of dairy imports is growing rapidly,but the concentration of import sources has led to China’s increasing dependence on the world dairy market and the risk of dairy imports continues to increase.Therefore,in the current complex international environment,it is important to gradually build a diversified import pattern,control the scale and pace of imports and ensure import stability.The possible marginal contribution to this paper is twofold: firstly,it provides an analysis of the current situation in terms of both supply and demand of dairy products,which helps to gain a deeper understanding of the current problems faced by the safety of dairy imports;secondly,it enriches and expands the literature on the optimization of the import pattern of dairy products from the perspective of import safety and proposes concrete solutions for the optimization of the trade pattern.This paper firstly provides a comprehensive analysis of the current supply and demand situation in China in order to explore the domestic supply situation of dairy consumption and the trend of the supply-demand gap.Secondly,the production and export levels of the major dairy producing countries are collated to select 12 key targets for study,whose trade potential with China is then analyzed in terms of trade status,strategic relationships and trade policies.Again,the risk sources of import trade are refined in terms of both supply and demand in the market to examine the import security situation in China.Then,the optimal combination of import risks is established through non-linear programming to explore the layout optimization strategy and conduct a feasibility discussion to obtain trade potential partners with different types.Finally,policy recommendations for optimizing China’s import pattern are put forward.Conclusions:(1)China’s dairy consumption market has great potential for future growth,especially for dried products.(2)There is security and stability in the short term for large-scale dairy supply through New Zealand,but in the long term there is a need to develop new import markets to diversify the concentration.(3)Risks to the safety of China’s dairy imports are mainly due to market concentration and import dependence.(4)A "ladder" approached to optimize the source layout of dairy imports will improve the orderliness of imports and make the choice of source countries more focused,so that the import pattern of dairy products will be rationalized and made safer.Therefore,in order to ensure the safety of national dairy imports and optimize the import trade pattern,it is important to plan ahead and make import layouts for the upgrading of China’s dairy dietary habits,build a long-term mechanism for trade cooperation with dairy exporting countries in an orderly manner,disperse longterm concentrated imports,stabilize the supply chain in the international market,and establish an early warning and monitoring system for the risk of dairy import dependency to control the direction of dairy import safety.