Study On Dynamic Mechanism Of Ecological Footprint Change And Modified Ecological Footprint Model

Study on the ecological footprint (EF) time series can reveal the characteristics and dynamic mechanism of regional EF change and developing trend in the future. Study on dynamic mechanism of EF change is to reveal the cause of EF change, internal mechanisms, and the basic process to predict future developing trend. Despite in recent years, considerable literatures at home and abroad have grown up relating to different scale and different region of the EF empirical researches, to a certain extent, past research on dynamic mechanism of EF changes lack systematic and objective analysis and interpretation. Accordingly, it's difficult to further reflect dynamic trendency of regional sustainable development in the future. Thus, research achievements on regional EF had played an unimportant role in policy-making and practice instruction of regional sustainable development. Therefore, intensive study on dynamic mechanism of regional EF change is essential. In addition, for the purposes of study on the improvements of the tradional EF model, new research approachs to compensate for the defects of ecological bias of EF are also essential.Strengthening research on the modified EF model, it is necessary to study the problem in-depth from the interal relationship between the regional EF and socio-economic development. For a case study of Xinjiang province in China, research contents are as follows:(1) Status and level of regional society-economy and resource-environment harmonious development were evaluated and analyzed using a constructed model which combinated set pair analysis (SPA) and harmonious development model.(2) Xinjiang's per capita EF and ecological carrying capacity (EC) during the period from 1990 to 2008 by applying the traditional EF model were calculated and analyzed.(3) Quantitative relationship between ecological footprint (EF) and economic growth were revealed. To ascertain that the relationship between the EF and economic growth is not spurious, unit root and cointegration tests were carried out. Once cointegration between the two time series was established, we then estimated their long-term relation and short-term dynamics. Next, standard Granger causality were determined. Based on the findings, we drew conclusions and provided policy implications of the study.(4) Internal relationship between ecological footprint (EF) and socio-economic influence factors were further revealed by the quantitative analysis results. Firstly, we selected 14 socio-economic influence factors of EF for modeling, and partial least squares (PLS) method and grey relation entropy analysis were used to select the important factors influencing the EF. Quantitative analysis results of the two methods are feasible and credible, and can be referred to one another. Next, the STIRPAT model, random form of IPAT equation in environment research field was introduced to research on relationship between EF changes and major socio- economic drives. The major drives of the EF, which are population, per capita GDP, urbanization, industry structure and energy intensity, were chosen to be involved in the drive mechanism analysis. Linear regression, ridge regression and PLS regression methods were applied in the STIRPAT model to investigate socio-economic dyanmic mechanism of EF changes.(6) Nonlinear scientific methods were applied in dynamic trendency prediction of EF development in the future. An iterative method which combining the strength of back-propagation (BP) in weight training and genetic algorithms'capability of searching the satisfying solution is proposed for optimizing wavelet neural networks (WNN). The proposed genetic algorithms optimized WNN was developed to predict the per capita EF during the period 2009-2015. Simulation results demonstrate the accuracy and the reliability of the prediction methodology based on the proposed model. Finally, predictions are obtained which provide reference for harmonious development of society-economy and resource-environment in Xinjiang province.(7) Modified model of EF was proposed to compensate for the defects of the traditional EF analysis. Integrated EF theory and method with ecosystem services, resource-environment and society-economy factors were cooprated into the study framework of the EF. In modified EF model, the equivalence factors of arable land, pasture land, and water land were dynamic adjusted, a type of absorbing pollution land was added, and modified methods of the fossil fuel footprint were proposed. Then, results of the modified EF model were compared with results of the traditional EF model. Finally, some countermeasures and suggestions were put forward to reduce the EF of Xinjiang and to promote regional sustainable development.The research achievements will provide research paradigms of dynamic mechanism of EF changes and modified EF model, and promote the development of theory and method of EF in theory. And it will play a role both in making regional sustainable development strategy and providing reference for sustainable development experience in practice.