Research On The Passenger Flow Forecast Of Urban Bus Stations In Passenger Transport Hubs

Passenger transport hub is an important link between the communication areas and between urban and rural areas,it plays an important role in promoting the coordinated development of regional transportation and the integration of urban and rural traffic.Due to the dual stimulation of rapid development of the city's economy the development of passenger transport hubs,the intensity of land development around the hub has gradually increased,and important transportation attractions such as commercial sites,residential quarters,and large logistics parks have emerged,making it become one of the sources of important passenger flow in bus stations.Therefore,this paper comprehensively considers the passenger flow between each transportation mode in the passenger terminal and the pedestrian flow generated by the change of the nature of the land around the hub,so as to build a passenger bus flow forecasting model in a passenger transport hub.This paper not only considers the passenger flow of each transit mode in the hub and the number transfers to buses,but also studies the number of passenger flow of pedestrian passenger that transfer to buses generated by the land facilities within the range of 1km around the passenger terminal.First,analyzing the psychological decisionmaking process when the traveler chooses the mode of transportation,and determine the 17 factors that affect the passenger transfer behavior.Analyzing the impact of land use properties around the hub on the hub station,the impact of the nature of land use on the subjective criteria of the passenger's choice of traffic mode is less,but the land surrounding the hub has a greater impact on passenger flow at the passenger terminal.Secondly,passengers were divided into 6 groups according to their arrival methods.On this basis,Factor Analysis was used to group 17 transfer factors to obtain the impact factors of the 6 groups of passengers.Due to the different passenger properties of passengers arriving at the passenger hub by different modes of transportation,subjective evaluation criteria differ greatly when choosing the mode of leaving.Grouping by means of arrival can ensure that the questionnaire objects are as consistent as possible.Then,Multinomial Logit Model were established to calculate the sharing rate of the six groups of passengers who transferred buses.Finally,according to the calculated sharing rate and the passenger flow in different transportation modes in the hub,the traffic volume that selects the bus leaving the hub is determined.In summary,this paper analyzes the impact of the property of the land surrounding the hub on the passenger flow,the amount of public exchange generated by pedestrian traffic within 1 km of the hub into the traffic volume in the hub are included;the passengers according to the arrival method are classified;Factor Analysis is uesd to get the grouping of transfer factors;Multinomial Logit Model is used to determine the proportion of different modes of transport and passengers arriving at the hub by bus.In the end,a passenger flow forecasting model for a bus station in a passenger terminal can scientifically forecast passenger flow is obtained,which is of great significance to the efficient operation of the hub.