Water Resources Carrying Capacity In The Aibi Lake Basin Of Xinjiang

The Aibi lake is the second largest lake and also the biggest salt water lake in Xinjiang. At the end of the 40^th of last century, the surface area of Aibi lake amounted to about 1200km². Since the beginning of the 50^th of last century, duing to the increasing demand of rapidly growing oasis populations, the surface of the lake has become smaller and smaller. At present, only two of the seven rivers are still reaching the shore of the lake.In the past twenty years, strong winds blew away about 4.8 million tons of salty sand from the dried lakebed every year. It is one of the two main headstreams of sandstorms in Xinjiang. Since the middle of the last century, nearly 60% of the forest in this region has been reduced by over-exploitation. In consequence, large areas of arable land have been lost to the desert. The settlements are subjected to continuous dust deposition. With the development of social economy, there are some problems mentioned. So, According to the eleventh "five-years-plan" , it emphasises on controling unreasonable activities of resource development in the western area in China, the paper researches the status quo of water resources carrying capacity and future development space in Aibi Lake Basin.Through field investigation and sample analysis, and application of 3S technology on ecological environment monitoring, the paper found out the problem of water resources and water environment in Aibi Lake Basin. In order to optimize the allocation of water resources in Aibi Lake Basin and coordinate water resources with society, economy as well as ecological development, it is necessary to carry on the research on water resources carrying capacity in Aibi Lake Basin. On the basis of predecessors' research results, it gives calculable models of carrying capacity of water resources in Aibi Lake Basin and applies it into practice. This article mainly relies on qualitative and quantitative analysis of the systems dynamics to study controlling system model of water resources, and takes the computer as the tool to implement the simulation experiment and the computation. The paper researches carrying capacity of the social and economic development.under the restriction of water resources, and make sustainable measures of water resources.This paper mainly has seven sections:1. It is suggested that water resource is relatively scarce in Aibi Lake Basin, but the current level of utilization of water resources is still low, particularly groundwater resources exploitation is still a larger potential, However, natural water and required water meet a clear contradiction, spring drought of Jinghe basin, summer drought of Bohe basin are bottle-neck of the development of agriculture. In addition, water...