Study On Assessment Model Of Coastal Zone Sustainable Development And Its Application

The 21st century is an epoch of sea and ocean. And coastal zone is the conjunction of land and sea. Nowadays, research on coastal zone sustainable development (CZSD) has become the frontier and hot domain of multi-interdisciplines. And indicators and assessment models of CZSD are the core contents of the research, and are also the theoretical basis of comprehensive valuation and integrated management practice of the CZSD. Therefore, to study on CZSD indicators and establish assessment models are very important in theory and extremely indispensable in practice.According to the fundamental theories and principles of Earth System Science, Environment and Sustainable Development, and Economic Geography, this paper studies on the basic theory and assessment model of coastal zone sustainable development by means of approaches and technologies of Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), Multi-variate Statistics Analysis, and Geographic Information System (GIS), combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, and integrating theoretical analysis with practical application. Main understandings and results are as follows.(1) to interpret the concept and intension of coastal zone sustainable development, design and create an index system, which consists of 32 indicators of statistics and monitoring, and three models such as comprehensive coordination degree (Dcz), sustainability (Scz) and sustainable development degree (K_sd), and also laborate the concepts of the assessment models and their mathematical fomulas and set forth critera and discriminant diagrams.(2) on the basis of qualitative analysis and investigation of the development status of environment, economy and society subsystems of the coastal zone in Guangdong province, the paper assess and analyse quantitatively the indices of Dcz, Scz and K_sd of the Guangdong coastal zone sustainable development (GDCZSD). The results show: a) the indices of Dcz, Scz and K_sd of the Guangdong coastal zone and the 14 coastal cities all tend to increase from 1995 to 2004, but they are very different in the progress and distribution of the indices, b) on the view of the progress, the Dcz of GDCZSD has involved into the comparatively weak level (IV) from the very weak level (V), and the Scz of the GDCZSD has got out of comparatively weak level (IV) and into the moderate level (III), and because of the constraintion of weaker Dcz, the K_sd still retains the comparatively weak level (IV). c) on view of the distribution, the indices of Dcz, Scz and K_sd of Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Zhuhai in the middle of the coastal zone in Guangdong, are at the comparatively higher level since 1995. However, they are at comparatively weaker level in Shantou, Shanwei, Chaozhou and Jieyang of the east coastal zone of Guangdong, and in Yangjiang, Maoming and Zhanjiang of the west coastal zone of Guangong, which represents a pattern that the middle of the GDCZSD level is higher and the east and the west are both lower. Tendency analysis results show the Guangdong coastal zone will go through a long-term and wave-typed advancement way to sustainable development.(3) to discuss the framework of the Guangdong coastal zone sustainable development decision support system (GDCZSD-DSS), and design a software frame based on a kind of three-tired B/S and C/S architecture and six function modules, and also point out the important role of the four kinds of key technologies, i.e. Geographic Information Technology, Geospatial Metadata, Spatial-data Warehouse Technology and Decision Support Model and Approach in the construction of the GDCZSD-DDS.(4) to study preliminarily the strategy scheme of the GDCZSD, and bring up one strategic guideline whose kernel is to improve and augment the capability and level of the GDCZSD, and one strategic objective that the K_Sd of the GDCZSD will reach the moderate level (III) in 2020, and then put forward seven recommendations for achieving the objective.This study is of very great significance to enrich the theory basis of research on coastal zone sustainable development, and is scientific reference materials for planning of Guangdong coastal zone sustainable development strategy, and for planning of of environmental, economic and social development of Guangdong province, and also sets an example for study on the coastal zone sustainable development of the other regions.