Research On Urban Water Resources Sustainable Utilization In North Coastal Cities Based On Water-based Theory And Complex Adaptive Theory

Water is one of the basic resources of life. With the rapid urbanization, water shortage and water pollution have become the nationwide problems in China, and the situation is more serious in coastal cities in north area. So water resources sustainable utilization has become the fundamental approach to resolve the water crises. This dissertation focuses on the theories and applications of urban water resources sustainable utilization based on water-based system(WBS) theory and complex adaptive system(CAS) theory. The main task of this dissertation includes the following sections:(1) The applications of WBS theory and CAS theory in urban water resources complex system(UWRCS). Firstly, the connotation of urban water-based system(UWBS) is expounded, and the difference between UWBS and urban water resources system(UWRS) is the composition and structure. In traditional theory, urban water resources management system(UWRMS) is as a part of UWRS. But in UWBS theory, the system is regarded as the product under the joint action of nature and human, and UWRMS is as the product of human thought, so the UWRMS is the part of social-economy system. Then, based on the analysis of complex adaptive characteristics of UWRCS, Stimulaiton-Learning Adaptation-Reaction . Micro-model of human being, Stimulaiton-Reaction Micro-models of other biological and object are built. And on the basis of the three micro-model, the Extend EHO Model is built for UWRCS.(2) The health of UWBS consists of three parts: the system stability, the concordance with ecological system and social-economy system, and the healthy evolvement trend. Accordingly, the system stability, concordance and the evolvement rate are applied to evaluate the health status of UWBS. Index weight values have significant effect on the evaluation result, so the index compromise weights are emphasized with the reliability analysis. From the viewpoint of weight combination method, the more consistent the distribution of subjective weight and objective weight is, the more reliable the evaluation result is. The health evaluation results of Dalian UWBS and Yantai UWBS show that the health status are both development with fluctuation, and the key restricting factor is the excessive development of groundwater under the influence of hydrological cycle.(3) The UWRCS develops with S-type pattern, so the process can be described with Logistic(L) curve and Gompertz(G) curve. The analysis of differential equations shows that the growth-period and the golden-period of L curve, and the growth-period, the golden-period and the autumn-period of G curve are the sustainable development period. The analysis of difference equation of L curve shows that the development speed is the key factor for the sustainable water resources utilization. Lower speed is the obstacle of society development, and over high speed can lead to the unsustainable development. Furthermore, the process of the sustainable development can be described with combined S-type curve, which contains the start-period, growth-period and golden-period of L curve and G curve. The fitting with development trajectory of Dalian UWRCS and Yantai UWRCS shows the feasibility.(4) The applications of CAS theory in water resources allocation model. Firstly, according to the complex adaptive characteristics in urban water utilization, urban water resources allocation complex adaptive model(UWRACAM) with multi-hierarchies is built. Secondly, the objectives, behaviors, learning mechanisms, and communication mechanisms of different agents are analyzed. With UWRACAM, Global evolution characteristics are studied based on the analysis of intelligence and adaptability of micro-agents, so the model has more superiority in systematicness and integrity. From the viewpoint of CAS theory, the process of water resources optimal allocation is consistent with the process of learning adaptation of agents in different hierarchies. Finally, Dalian UWRACAM is built to finish the water resources allocation in 2010 and 2020. Agents of Dalian UWRACAM are divided into three hierarchies in vertical: system-grade, department-grad, and group-grade, and the allocation process is divided into two steps in horizontal: supply-demand balance process and allocation adaptation process.(5)Firstly, the framework of urban water resources management decision support system(UWRMDSS) is designed. According to the characteristics of urban water resources management, the system can be divided into six parts: basic information management, business management, water resources allocation management, water quality management, the rationality evaluation management of water use, and the information publishing management. Among the six subsystems, the business management and the information publishing management are designed with the architecture of client/server, and others are designed with the architecture of browser/server. Database design is important for the system design, and database of UWRMDSS is composed of four sub-database: basic information database, gis-database, model method database, and knowledge database. Then, Dalian groundwater resources management information system is developed. The main functions of the system are to manage the groundwater drawing permission and charge the groundwater fee. Furthermore, with the COMGIS development pattern, the interactive query between spatial data and attribute data are realized.Finally, a summary is given and some problems to be further studied are discussed.