Study On Theory And Method Of Water Resources Dispatch And Allocation

Water resources reasonable disposition research is one of hot points of present water scientific research, can not still meet the requirement of practice for the knowledge of complex water resources system and the method of describing and other theoretical research. This paper has studied multi-objective decision-making theory and Solution method:flexible decision-making theoty, Fuzzy Inference method, complicate water resources system dispatch and allocation decision making theory and method, solution for multi-objective optimization based on real-coded accelerate genetic algorithm, intelligent scenario evaluation method based on support vector machione and decision-making method based on case reasoning. A coupled model system which consist of optimization and simulation was set up based on all factors, water resources allocation effect evaluation model, study the year level of 2010 and 2020 as the example to validate the theory of flexible decision-making, and find a set of scenarios of water resources reasonable disposition. The major accomplishments are as follows:(1) Study on the index system of water resources dispatch and allocation decision-making and evaluation. To the question of The Yellow River water resources utilization character, space lower technique and principal components analysis were applied in the process of index selecting. The index system of decision-making and evaluation of The Yellow River water resources dispatch and allocation was set up. The attributes index of water resources decision-making was confirmed as the measure of water resources reasonable disposition.(2) the systemic multi-objective flexible theory was studied, and introduced into the domain of water resources dispatch and allocation decision-making. Through the study on limited rational of decision-maker, the academic frame work system mode of water resources multi-objective flexible decision-making was set up, the fuzzy subordinate degree function of different decision-making attributes were established, the compositive mothod was applied to establish the total subordinate degree function. Base on the theory of flexible decision-making, apply a series of fuzzy language and mutual decision-making mode reason, the Utility Function of decision-maker was reproducted recessively.(3) Based on the optimization and simulation model, we set up the all factors optimization coupled model system of water resources dispatch and allocation. To the question of the unCommensurability of the huge water system variable, we adopt huge system delamination decision-making, decomposition and coordination Algorithm and real-coded accelerate genetic algorithm, advance the new solution for flexible water resources distatch and allocation, enrich the water resources planning and management theory and method.(4) The scenarios evaluation and optimization selection is one of the frontiers problems, we introduced the support vector theory coupled with reasoning technology for solution of non-linner relationship with the least structure risk, to realize the self study of decision-maker Preference structure and can reconstruct decision-maker Preference structure, weakening the human subjective factors influence during the decision making process, and settle down the problem of local extremum. base on SVM, intelligent model of water resources decision-making was set up, through the theory of second optimization and decision-maker utility reconstruct, limitation of solving non-linear problem with the traditional analysis and evaluation method, the intelligence of decision-making was actualized.(5) Apply the case based reasoning method in scenarios decision-making of water resources dispatch and allocation, and nest Fuzzy Inference technology, through the introduction of hydrology element similarity as the important index for case reasoning and searching, the water resources intelligent decision making model, through the hydrology element search and match to reconstruct the case, which provide a new route and method to water resources dispatch and allocation decision-making.