Study On The Tourism Economic Effect Of China Based On The Perspective Of Input-output

After30years of rapid development since the reform and opening up, the tourism industry occupies an important place in the national economy and plays more and more important roles in the development of the economy, such as the keeping growth, the expansion of domestic demand, the adjustable structure and other aspects. By the end of2009, the state council promulgated "the opinions on speeding up the development of tourism", which further affirms the importance of tourism industry, and it clearly put forward that:"the tourism should be fostered into the strategic pillar industry of the national economy and the modern service industry which will be more satisfied by the people ". So, on the whole, the tourism industry gets a clear positioning in the whole economy.Tourism not only can promote the development of production, increase the government financial income, increase the employment and increase the income, but also can expand the withdrawal of currency from circulation. Furthermore, the tourism economic effect will be gradually released as the development of domestic and overseas tourism. So, it is important to do in-depth study on the tourism economic effect of China, and get the more accurate and more reasonable evaluation of the impact of the tourism industry on the China economy.At present, the research on tourism economic effect is usually limited in qualitative description and lack the quantitative analysis. So, after combing the domestic and foreign literatures and analyzing the related theories about the tourism economic effects, this paper try to do some in-depth quantitative study on the three aspects of China tourism economic effects:the income effect, the employment effect, the industrial correlation and ripple effect based on the "2007(2002) Chinese input and output table". And the main conclusions contents are as follows:First, the tourism multiplier is calculated. Based on2007(2002) years input-output table, stripping out tourism from related industries, the direct output, indirect output and inductive out of the tourism in2007(2002) year. Then the tourism output multiplier of2007year is deduced as3.15. That is, one yuan increasing of the output of the tourism industry will bring3.15yuan of the whole output increasing. And the tourism employment multiplier of2007year is2.15, which means every one person direct tourism employment can bring2.15employment of tourism related industry. And, the comprehensive tourism employment is8.38percentage of the total social employment. In addition, we also get the multipliers of the2002year. The output multiplier is2.77and the employment multiplier is1.77in2002year. And the tourism comprehensive employment is7.83percentage of the total social employment. And it shows that the tourism employment effect is significant, and which played an important role in promoting the social employment. Second, the status of tourism industry in the national economy is further clarified. In this paper, the traditional calculation model of the status is modified in two aspects:first, the added value replaces the gross value; then, the comprehensive stripping tourism output replaces the direct tourism output. So, after stripping tourism output from135industries according to the relationship between the other industries and the tourism, we can get the direct output, the indirect output and the inductive output. Then, comparing with the GDP, the ratios of these outputs can be got as1.99%,3.6%and0.47%. So, the total added value of tourism output is6.06percentage of the GDP. Obviously, this ratio is more accurate and can reflect the contribution of tourism industry to the national economy more comprehensively than the one calculated by the traditional model.Third, the tourism industry correlation effects are studied. All kinds of the tourism industry correlation effects are all derived from the2002and2007input-output table. Firstly, the tourism consumption coefficient is greater than the distribution coefficient, namely the backward linkage of the tourism is stronger than the forward linkage. It shows that the pull effect on the upstream industry of the tourism development is stronger. Secondly, the tourism influence index greater than the induction degree index, which means the pull effect of the tourism to the entire national economy is greater than the pull effect of the national economy to the tourism. Thirdly, the Intermediate demand rate of the tourism is smaller than the intermediate input rate, which indicates the development of tourism needs more other industry products as intermediate input of production elements, and the development of tourism will promote its upstream industries development. Finally, the comprehensive correlation coefficient of the tourism is small, indicating that the comprehensive influence of the tourism in the economy is still not great. But, its increasing in2007than in the2002indicates the influence of tourism in the whole economy is improving.Fourth, the other economic effects of tourism are studied. There are four other economic effects: Firstly, the consumption effect is analyzed. Compared with other industry sectors,2002and2007annual tourism final consumption coefficients are both at a high level. They showed that most of the tourism industry output are produced for consumption, and the vigorous development of the tourism is an important means to stimulate the consumption demand. Secondly, the export effect is calculated. Tourism export coefficient is small, which means that China’s tourism have some certain appeal to foreign visitors, but the domestic tourism consumption occupies the main position. And as the coefficient is declined in2007, the leading role of the domestic tourism get more stable, and it shows a great potential market and a large space for the development of international tourism. Finally, the investment effect is also deduced. And the China’s current tourism business effect is poor, the return rate of the investment is quite low, and the operating status continued to be worsen. Therefore, the investment attraction of the tourism is probably being weakened. And, the sustainable development of tourism industry may be challenged.Finally, after the above analysis of the tourism economic effect, seven major problems of development of the China’s tourism industry are analyzed, which including:the orientation of the strategic pillar industry of the tourism, the development speed of tourism; the effect on boosting the domestic demand of the tourism; the tourism consumption rate; the relation between the tourism development and national economic development; the development of domestic tourism. Then we also proposed methods and measures from eight aspects, such as:taking the initiative; increasing tourism to stimulate the domestic demand; adjusting the structure of consumption and promoting the tourism consumption; giving full play of the leading role of tourism economy; promoting tourism employment; focusing on the development of domestic tourism; strengthen the tourism industry development; strengthen the infrastructure construction.