A Study On The Imbalance And Adjustment Of World Economy In The Post Financial Crisis Period

The Financial Crisis that had swept across the globe makes people re-inspect the problems lurking in the development of global economy. The imbalance of the world economy is thought to be one of the key causes of the Financial Crisis, However, the imbalance of the world economy is not a brand new problem, which has happened several times in history. Many economists had done lots of studies on the causes and continuity of the imbalance yet without a common view. The resent imbalance of the world economy was mainly showed as current account deficit kept for a long time in those developed countries headed by the US and current account profit mainly existing in those developing countries headed by P. R. China, which gradually became the imbalance of the economic development between the two, the growing gap between the north and the south and the imbalance of trades and capital flow. This dissertation, based on the post Crisis period, from G20’s angle of view, systematically studies on the causes, characteristics and influence of the resent imbalance of the world economy and suggests relevant policy based on the platform of G20. The dissertation is divided into six chapters, and the contents of each are as follows:Chapter one:introduction. This chapter firstly introduces the research background and significance of the whole dissertation; next, reviews and comments the present literature about imbalance of the world economy and concludes it by its lack in theoretical studies in three aspects:the causes of the imbalance of the world economy, the methods to adjust the imbalance of the world economy and the internal relationships between G20and the adjustments of the imbalance of the world economy; then, introduces in detail the research thought, structure arrangement and the research method of the whole dissertation. Finally, the innovation and the insufficiency of the dissertation are presented.Chapter two:a review of the theories of world economic imbalance and the adjustments of it. This chapter firstly reviews the classic theory on world economic imbalance within the theory of international trade, and then introduces the new development of this field in the new century. After, the chapter introduces the theory of the adjustment of world economic imbalance and the international mechanism theory in science of international relations. Finally, the chapter comments on the existing literature and points out the future direction of further research.Chapter three:main expressions and their causes of the imbalance of the world economy in the post Financial Crisis period. Theoretically defining the concept of "post Financial Crisis period" as a base, this chapter systematically discusses the influence and new changes that the international Financial Crisis brought to the imbalance of the world economy after2008, discusses the influence that international division of labor brought to the imbalance of the world economy from two aspects of trade division structure and financial market structure, and concludes the causes of the imbalance of the world economy. A cross-period two-country model is built, and panel data model is used to analyze the influence on current account by government revenue and expenditure and net foreign assets.Chapter four:the influence of the imbalance of the world economy to those countries of G20in the post Financial Crisis period. By using the trade and investment data of the major countries in G20and selecting the proper quotas, this chapter analyzes the influence the imbalance of the world economy bringing to the countries of G20, and establishes a simple model of division of labor between developed and developing countries, in order to analyze the relationship between international division of labor and world economic imbalance.Chapter five:G20and the imbalance of the world economy. This chapter focuses on and probes in the foundation, the mechanism and the latest development of G20, and discusses the discussion of the causes of the world economic imbalance and the actions on policy adjustment by G20in the resent three years. Based on which, the corresponding theoretical suggestion is presented to suggest how the G20reinforces its mechanismisation and promotes a better adjustment of the imbalance of the world economy. And then, the chapter especially selects those representative developed and developing countries in G20—the most imbalanced ones are USA and East Asian economies—and discusses in three aspects their methods of adjustments answering the world economic imbalance:economic restructuring, exchange routing adjustment and adjustment of financial system. At last, the chapter compares the methods of adjustments answering the world economic imbalance between USA and East Asian economies.Chapter six:China’s practical strategy and countermeasure to participate in the adjustment of the world economic imbalance. This chapter focuses on the analysis of China’s strategic targets and strategic focuses of its participation in the adjustment of the world economic imbalance led by G20. Based on which, the chapter provides China practical policies and in-and external method selections in multiple fields like fiscal integrity policy, monetary policy, foreign trade policy, Exchange rate policy and financial policy.The dissertation thinks the imbalance of the world economy is an imbalance based on the international division of labor between the global financial and manufacturing industry. The result of empirical analysis also indicates that the influence of the government revenue and expenditure is more obvious on current account, and then on relative per capita income, the relative labor productivity and net foreign assets. On the platform of G20, world countries should collaborate with each other and adjust domestic economy according to the actual situation, so as to realize the rebalance of the world economy. China should change the mode of economic development, adjust the simply encouraging export foreign trade policy, actively participate in international economic cooperation and coordination, actively promote the reformation of International Monetary System, accelerate the internationalization of RMB, reinforce the cooperation of regional economy and monetary, enhance the international coordination mechanism of economic policies and rebuild China’s initiative and even dominance in the system of international division of labor.