Urbanization, Upgrading Of Industrial Structure And Economic Growth In County:Theory And Empirical Evidence

The counties are the foundation of a country. County economy is the basic unit of the national economy and plays a decisive role to it. Since2002, nominal GDP of China county economy average increase to17.5percent yearly, far higher than the overall growth of the national economy. Scholars explain the phenomenon on county economic growth from two angles including factor accumulation and productivity enhancing, but according to the neoclassical theory of economic growth, upgrading the industrial structure is an important reason to promote economic growth in the economy, this study attempts to explain the reason for the rapid growth of China’s county economy from upgrading of industrial structure, putting forward scientific issues that how much is the upgrading of industrial structure’(structural bonus)s contribution in the China’s country economic growth? What factors decide structural bonus differences between different counties? Further thought is that sustained release of the structural bonus need upgrading of industrial structure to do security, upgrading the industrial structure in rural China are based on county industrialization, extensive development mode and sustainability disadvantage gradually revealed, scholars have proposed promoting industrial upgrading by the main line of development of urbanization. Thus, this study presents another scientific problem whether development of urbanization can promote upgrading of industrial structure. At the theoretical level, this study will provide the evidence from the county economy for theory of industrial structure, especially the related research on structural bonus. In the aspect of practice, this study will provide basis for decision making for the government about the related industrial policy choice, mining structural bonus and making full use of the structural transformation of the spillover effect.The study is divided into eight chapters, Chapter III to Chapter VII are core sections and the main study can be summarized in two parts:(A) The third chapter is mainly the theoretical analysis. Unfold from two parts of qualitative analysis and mathematical analysis. Firstly, research the formation process of industrial structure within the economic system from the view of the division of labor and analyze the impacting factors of urbanization development on upgrading of industrial structure. Secondly, according to neoclassical economic theory, define the effects that upgrading of industrial structure on economic growth in the county (structural bonus) and analyze the factors affecting the structure of county bonus. Again, discuss the spatial effects of upgrading of industrial structure and structural bonus effect. Finally, section of mathematical analysis need to establish an economic growth model that contains urban and rural sectors to abstract the above problem.(B) The empirical analysis include the fourth, fifth, sixth and seventh chapter. On the basis of descriptive statistics of the original data, make test of spatial correlation between the county industrial structures, develop and validate the effect of urbanization development on upgrading of industrial structure. Secondly, measure structural bonus in the county economy and decomposition structural bonus of capital and labor to further test its spatial correlation. Eventually, analyze the differences of structural bonuses between different country types and verify the impacting factors of structure bonus.The main findings of this study are:Firstly, the development of urbanization will significantly promote the upgrade of industrial structure of the county; the enhancing speed of urbanization rate has a significant positive impact on the pace of upgrade of industrial structure. Based on Black, Henderson (1999), construct a model of economic growth in both urban and rural sectors, solving the model proved that urbanization development play a decisive role in the upgrade of industrial structure from the mathematical. In the empirical analysis section, based on panel data of China1820county, found that urbanization rate increased by1%through spatial error model estimating, the proportion of non-agricultural industries in the eastern part of the county will increase by0.12%, increase0.24%in the Central County and West County increased by0.21%. Through analysis of the mechanism on urbanization development promoting upgrade of industrial structure to discover that technological innovation driven by the urbanization development is the most fundamental reason to promote upgrading of industrial structure. County industrial structure upgrading can be divided into two processes; the first is the industrial structure of each county escalates to their different steady-state level. With the continuous improvement of capital endowment, technology innovation and exchange, the industrial structure will be further upgraded, eventually upgrade to the same steady-state structure. West county government promotes the upgrading of industrial structure, while the eastern and central county government has played a negative role.Secondly, the structural bonus of China county economy make a greater contribution to economic growth, government actions, endowments and other factors have a significant influence on the structural bonus. In this study, we estimate output elasticity of factors by Translog production function, and then measure the structural bonus in the county economic growth. The study found that the structural bonus accounted for4.44percent of the county’s GDP, the contribution to GDP growth in the county has reached24.35percent and the structural bonus in the county economy is greater than the structure of the national economy. Further decomposition of analysis showed that structural bonus of the capital element in the county economy is greater than the one of the labor element; there are significant differences of the structural bonus between different counties’ types. Inspection found that government actions have a negative effect on the structure of the bonus, workers capital; labor and land have a significant impact on the structural bonus by constructing econometric model of the spatial error to learn factors affecting the structural bonus.Thirdly, there are significant spatial correlation on the industrial structure and the structural bonus of China County, which reflects a positive spillover effect. In this study, we test the spatial correlation on the industrial structure and the structural bonus of country by Moran’s I index, found that in most point and space, there exists significant space spillover effects. The reason of causing the spatial correlation is exchanging of element, technology, market demand between the neighboring county.The innovation of this study may be as follows:(1) Innovative research object. This paper will put the analysis of problem in the county framework, emphasizing the characteristics industrial structure development in the county economy and measuring the structural bonus in county economy, which incarnates creative on the selection of research object. In terms of the structural bonus, the existing research focused on the whole national economy instead of measuring the research of the county structural bonus.(2)Innovative theory model and method application. In this paper, Black, Henderson (1999) model has been developed and constructed a two-sector economic growth model between urban and rural, which successfully portrayed the development of urbanization play a promoting role on the upgrading of industrial structure and proved that urbanization development pushing forward upgrade of the county industrial structure is feasible. In terms of promoting the upgrading of industrial structure, the existing literature researched mainly from the qualitative point of view without giving systematic theoretical and empirical evidence. Theoretical model in the article reflects the highly targeted and certain innovation. And this paper adopt a new method to measure the structure bonus, make up for the deficiency of the shift share method.(3) Innovative research perspective. This paper discusses the development of urbanization effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure, and verifies it. The article verifies the Space-related phenomena of industrial structure and the structural bonus between the county from the perspective of spatial correlation. Spatial correlation was instituted by many scholars, but in the field of industrial structure, especially the attention to spatial spillover effects of the structural bonus are not paid by scholars, which is Entry point of this article and find there exists the positive spatial spillover effects in the structural bonus.