The Research On The Relation Between Guangxi Foreign Trade Commodity Structure And Industrial Structure

The negative effects of global financial crisis to the world economy still are not removed completely, which cause the development of world economy shows the feature of non-equilibrium and non-synchronization. Developed countries’economy recovers slowly. On the other hand, although some emerging economies, such as China and India, lead the recovery after financial crisis, their economic growth rates are still low. Under this condition, China’s economy faces serious structural contradictions. As China’s largest trading partners, the weak foreign demand of western developed countries further presents new requirements to adjusting China’s industrial structure and commodity structure of foreign trade.Guangxi, as China’s late-developing regions, benefiting from deepening the co-operation of China-ASEAN Free Trade Area, developing Guangxi Beibu Gulf Economic Zone and the eastern industry transfer, is experiencing a high speed period of economic development. The development of Guangxi economy is closely related to its industrial structure and commodity structure of foreign trade. Namely, only if local characteristic could be effectively combined with the development of economy, Guangxi economy will achieve a leaping development. Therefore, to coordinate development between commodity structure of foreign trade and industrial structure, it plays a significant role in adjusting Guangxi development strategy of foreign trade and improving its industrial structure. From this perspective, this dissertation reveals the inter-relation of commodity structure of Guangxi’s foreign trade and industrial structure, and systematically summarizes the current development situation of commodity structure of Guangxi foreign trade and industrial structure in order to find some issues of its development process. And then, the dissertation uses the data to empirically and completely analyze the inter-relation between commodity structure of Guangxi foreign trade and industrial structure, and concretely discusses its functions and influences. Furthermore, based on above analysis finds the contradiction that exists in the process of mutual development between improving the commodity structure of Guangxi foreign trade and upgrading its industrial structure, this article puts forward some policy proposals. To some extent, this research has not only practical significance for Guangxi economic development, but also has certain referential significance for other western provinces of China to adjust their trade structure and industrial structure.The dissertation discusses and studies this topic from the following sections:Part1:Introduction. This part introduces the background and significance of this thesis, and summarizes related literatures’views about the mutual relation (compatible or incompatible) of commodity structure of foreign trade and industrial structure. Additionally, it also includes the research method, logic, framework, innovation and shortcoming of this dissertation.Part2:Basic theory of the relation between commodity structure of foreign trade and industrial structure. First of all, this part summarizes the theory of commodity structure of foreign trade, which comes from the theory of foreign trade. According to basic classification method of the theory of foreign trade, the part concludes three aspects of the theory of foreign trade commodity structure, and the evaluation criteria of optimizing the foreign trade commodity structure. Secondly, because of the theory of industrial structure stemming from the theory of evolution of industrial structure, the article summarizes its original theory, and concludes some factors that affect the industrial structure upgrading. Thirdly, the article sums up the mutual relation of the foreign trade commodity structure and the industrial structure, and points out two statuses, namely, consistency development and development misplaced, which exists in the process of their development. Development misplaced includes ahead of development misplaced and backwardness of development misplaced. Finally, the article concludes the conduction mechanism that foreign trade commodity structure influences the industrial structure, and the way that industrial structure influences the foreign trade commodity structure.Part3:The historical evolution of foreign trade commodity structure and industrial structure in Guangxi. This part mainly introduces the general development situation of Guangxi foreign trade, and the change of Guangxi import and export commodity structure from1999-2012. And it also introduces in detail the main import and export commodity of Guangxi, for example, primary commodity, the main industrial products, electromechanical products, and high-tech products. Furthermore, it analyses the TSC index of Guangxi import and export commodity. The second section of this part systematically analyses the evolution of Guangxi industrial structure, according to the classification of primary industry, secondary industry and tertiary industry. To conclude, it reveals the development situation of the intra-structure of Guangxi three industries.Part4:The empirical analysis of Guangxi foreign trade commodity structure and its industrial structure. This part includes Chapter4and5. Chapter4gives a macroscopic analysis. In this Chapter, one index, which shows the change of Guangxi export and import commodity structure, is the proportion of the capital and technology-intensive products and the total import-export commodities. And another index, which shows the change of Guangxi industrial structure, is the proportion of Guangxi industrial added value and its gross domestic product. Based on the analysis of the data, the development of imports and exports commodity structure of Guangxi falls behind the development of its industrial structure. And the first section of this chapter illustrates in detail the reasons. The second section empirically analyses the correlation between the change of Guangxi industrial structure and the change of imports and exports commodity structure. However, the analysis shows their correlation is not very obvious. Namely, the change of foreign trade commodity structure, specially the imports commodity structure, plays a limited role in stimulating the improvement of Guangxi industrial structure. On the contrary, from the microcosmic perspective, Chapter5uses the regression equation to reveal the relations that Guangxi three industries affect the change of imports and exports commodity structure, and the classification of imports and exports commodity of Guangxi influence the change of industrial structure. Based on the result of regression, this Chapter concretely analyses whether or not each independent variable would influence dependent variable. And if it is, the Chapter would analyze the degree of influence and the reasons.Part5:Conclusion and policy proposals. This is Chapter6of the dissertation. Section1of this Chapter concludes the main research achievements of the dissertation. On the basis of above research conclusions, Section2puts forward the corresponding policy proposals. For example, in view of the characteristic of Guangxi industrial structure, the government can adjust its foreign trade policy. And the development policy of Guangxi industrial structure should contribute to the improvement of foreign trade commodity structure.