| In the 1990, with the global manufacturing industry transfer, china’s manufacturing industry has developed vigorously. According to the consulting firm IHS global insight’data:china accounted for 19.8% of global manufacturing industry’output in 2010. China has become veritable large manufacturing country. However, there are many problem in china’ manufacturing industry:in the middle and low level of international value chain; low economic creativity; industry structure is unreasonable, mainly labor-intensive industries; export products is "three-low" products with low-technology, low price, low value-added. These problems severely restricted the china’ shift from a large country to powerful country in manufacturing industry. In addition, since the financial crisis, the world demand decreased, re-industrialization of developed country, RMB exchange rate appreciation against US dollar, domestic labor cost rising, the significant changes of the economic situation at home and abroad make the survival and development of china’ manufacturing industry is particular hard. Technology progress and industry upgrading is imminent.New growth theory regards endogenous technological progress as a source of economic growth. Under the condition of open, the technological progress is not only rely on own research and development but also depend on the absorption of foreign technology spillovers. Foreign direct investment is one of the main way of technology spillovers. Since china’ reform and opening up, FDI in china is increasing. In 2013, investment amount is 117.6 billion dollars, including 45.56 billion dollars in manufacturing industry. Economic and trade correlation between domestic and foreign provides conditions for china to absorb foreign technology spillovers. So according to economic growth theory and combining the condition of china closely linked with other country, Research on china’ manufacturing technology progress and industrial upgrading from the perspective of international technology spillovers through FDI is the inevitable choice.This paper adapted method of theoretical and empirical test to analyze and solve problems. First of all, it reviewed endogenous growth theory, the technology spillover of FDI theory, industrial upgrading theory, the theory of relations technology spillover with industrial upgrading. By tracking the current domestic and foreign latest research dynamic, the author find the breakthrough point of the research and main problem. Then using the classic theory and combining the actual situation of china’ manufacturing industry and introducing FDI, the article qualitatively analyze the technology spillover’ effect and influential factors through FDI. In the empirical analysis, the paper used statistical principle component analysis and panel data regression analysis. The author established a new type of science evaluation index system and evaluated the technical level of 29 manufacturing industry by adapting principle component analysis. Through panel data regression analysis, it examined the technology spillover’effect on manufacturing industry upgrading. In influential factor analysis, the paper used the interaction of foreign R&D capital stock and respective influential factors not including technical factors to analyze the impact of various factors on the spillover’ effect of different type of manufacturing industry.Through the theoretical and empirical method, this paper mainly to solve the following three questions:Firstly, it is whether the international technology spillovers through FDI have impact of China’s manufacturing industry upgrading?Secondly, researching the influential factors of international technology spillovers from the angle of the manufacturing industry segments.Thirdly, it is the path choice of China’s manufacturing technology progress and the corresponding policy recommendations of increasing international technology spillovers through FDI.Innovation of this paper lies in:Firstly, the paper jump out of the framework of technology progress and economic growth promoted by technology spillover through FDI and focus on industrial upgrading. FDI bring capital and technology for the host country Capital is a supplement to the lack of funds for the host country belongs to the "quantity", the technology make the host country obtain dynamic comparative advantage and promote its "quality". So the researchers pay more attention to research of FDI technology spillover effect, but most studies focused on the existence of the technology spillover effect, the transmission mechanism and the influence of the economic growth of a country. Fewer people study FDI technology spillover effect on industrial upgrading dynamically. The author thinks that the research of this problem is more important, Because industrial upgrading is sustained economic growth impetus, dynamic upgrade can reflect a country’s comparative advantage.Secondly, the paper research the existence of technological spillover from the view of manufacturing industry segment, during the course of studying about the existence of the technology spillover of FDI and the transmission mechanism, the scholars analysis more from the macro national level or micro enterprise level, less focus on the medium industry level. Even studying from the manufacturing level, they have not pay attention to the differences between manufacturing industry. The innovation of this article is that from the medium industry level, analysis technology spillover effects on China’s manufacturing industry upgrade in detail.Thirdly, the paper established a new formula about R&D capital stock. In the empirical analysis of technology spillover through FDI on China’s manufacturing industry upgrading, this paper first to establish foreign R&D capital stock formula from industry level by referencing LP method.Fourthly, the paper introduce the technical differences of industry itself into the analysis framework of influential factors of international technology spillover through FDI. Each of the manufacturing industry has different production technology and technical development level, the connotation of the technology progress is different, so the effective degree of each kind of factor on different kinds of industry exists bigger difference. In the past, the literature simplified the technology spillover effect and blurred the industry technological differences, ignores the heterogeneity of various factors’ influence on different types of industry. In this paper, according to the relative inputs of the factors, manufacturing industry will be divided into three categories: labor-intensive, capital-intensive and technology-intensive. Respectively studying of the influential factors of different types of industries, its purpose is to make the technical differences of industry itself as one of the factors including the analysis framework of FDI technology spillover.The author applied LP method to setting variable of foreign capital stock from the industry level and tried to find the relationship between technology spillover and industrial upgrading basing on econometric model. The paper draw the following main conclusions:First, from the qualitatively analysis of mode, industrial distribution, national and regional distribution of FDI, we can see China manufacturing technology spillover effect through foreign direct investment is limited, even block the technology spillover of some industries.Second, through empirical analysis of econometric model, the article affirmed the existence of technology spillover effect of manufacturing industries through FDI. As a whole, technology spillover effect of import trade channels is greater than the technology spillover effect of FDI channels. But there are negative correlation between domestic R&D and technological progress; from the view of three types of industry, international technology spillover effect from high to low is capital-intensive industry, labor-intensive industry and technology-intensive industry.Third, the paper regarded the proportion of manufacturing industry output value accounted for the total output value as proxy variable of industry upgrading, and tested the impact technology spillover on the upgrade of the inter-industry, the regression results show that the regression coefficient from labor-intensive industry to technology-intensive industry decline in turn, it indicated that the technology spillover of FDI channel block in the manufacturing industrial structure upgrade.Fourth, in considering differences existing in internal manufacturing industry, the paper respectively regressed on the influence factors of the different types of manufacturing industry. For labor-intensive industries, the main factors influencing the FDI spillover effect is human capital, market openness, the degree of competition in the market; For capital-intensive industries, the first factor is industry competition degree, the second is the human capital, the third is the market openness; for technology-intensive industries, the first is the market openness, the second is human capital. The status of human capital of technology- intensive industries is inversely proportional to technology spillover. The result proves the technology-intensive industry in our country with the low quality of human capital, it can’ t require the human capital threshold of technology spillovers, so hindered the technology spillover of FDI channels; And the higher the market openness, the deeper degree of involving in the global specialization, the greater the technology lock effect of multinational companies.According to the conclusion of theoretical analysis and empirical test, this article put forward policy measures to different categories of manufacturing industry of promoting international technology spillover through FDI.First, for labor-intensive manufacturing industries, regarding improving the level of human capital as a primary means to promote the technology spillover effect. Setting up the mechanism of introducing talents, and a two-way flow of human capital between domestic and foreign enterprises; Increased investment in personnel training, improved the structure of talent supply. The above measures will provide powerful human resources guarantee for labor-intensive industries to absorb technology spillover of FDI channels.Second, for the capital-intensive industries, it is important to form a pattern of benign competition in the market which could realize by promoting foreign source diversification, encouraging enterprise in the industry to form strategic alliance. Behavior of game strategies of domestic and foreign enterprises will help foreign companies to transfer technology to domestic enterprises.Third, for technology-intensive industries, in order to break the foreigner’ technology blockade to domestic enterprises, The author thinks that it should give full play to the associated effects before and after, breakthrough from the perspective of a strategic alliance with a complementary multinationals. Such as encouraging multinational company to invest on high-degree correlation technology-intensive industry, strengthening links with the multinational companies through industrial agglomeration effect, etc.
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