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The Research And Application On The Forecasting Methods Of China’s Rare Earths Production

Posted on:2016-03-29Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:X B WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330461994999Subject:Management Science and Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
China is now the largest producer of rare earths worldwide, holding 90% of the world’s total output. Due to China’s leading role in the world’s rare earths supply and recent development of rare earth terminal industry, future trend of China’s rare earths supply becomes an academic hot topic. Previous production forecasts are mostly estimations based on an understanding of the output of rare earths mines or projects worldwide. Researchers seldom applied any forecasting model or method for this purpose. In this paper, models applicable to exhaustible resources supply forecasts are categorized and analyzed, so as to choose one best for the case of rare earths. With this model, the production of each mineral and element were predicted.The major findings of this study are as follows:Firstly, this study gives a comprehensive review of the forecasting models applied to study the supply of exhaustible resources. Their working principles, conditions of application, merits and demerits were analyzed and compared in detail. It is found that Hubbert model HCZ model and generalized Weng model can be applied to forecast China’s rare earths production.Secondly, the prediction parameters were determined scientificly to ensure that rare earths production forecasting stability and accuracy. In the part of rare earths forecasting by mineral types and elements, the paper uses iterative trial and regression analysis method to determine the parameters of Generalized Weng Model; In the part of optimal depletion, the paper calculated the parameters of recoverable reserves of rare earth elements, taste parameters and length of service by ratio method and regression analysis method.Thirdly, the paper predicts the production of rare earth resources by mineral type and by element. The existing research on rare earth resources supply and demand forecast pays more attention to total rarely classification and rarely has classication discussion. On the basis of a large number of literature research, this paper obtain time series data of rare earths by mineral type and by element, and then make the medium and long term prediction for mixed rare earths, bastnasite, ion-absorbed rare earth and 11 kinds of elements respectively based on the Generalized Weng’s model. And the accuracy of the prediction results is also proved in this paper.Fourthly, to put forward policy suggestions based on the different minerals types and the supply and demand of rare earth resources at home and abroad. At present, the production regulation policy about rare earth resources mining only distinguishes the light rare earth and heavy rare earths in our country. More detailed classification for rare earth resources management will be beneficial to sustainable development and utilization of resources. This paper further differentiates rare earth resources for mixed rare earths, bastnasite, ion-absorbed rare earth according to the mineral type, and respectively provide domestic regulation policy suggestions to provide theoretical basis and decision support for the improvement of the rare earth resources regulatory policy.
Keywords/Search Tags:rare earths, production forecasting model selection, mineral type-based production forecast, element-based production forecast, policy proposal
PDF Full Text Request
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