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Study On Mechanisms And Strategies For China’s Multi-level Oil Stockpile System

Posted on:2015-01-16Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:X ChenFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330467485992Subject:Energy and Environmental Engineering
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
As the "industrial blood", oil is extremely important for economic development. China has begun to be the biggest oil importer in the world oil market. Oil supply security has become a key issue, which is related to the economic development and social stability. To solve the problem of oil supply security and ensure the economic development, since2003, China has begun to establish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and encourage the development of commercial oil stockpiles. Through the SPR policy, the government wanted to mitigate the loss caused by the oil supply shortage. Questions on China’s oil stockpile system are becoming important.Based on the theory of dynamic programming, this thesis began with the optimal purchasing and releasing strategies of the SPR and built several models to analyze China’s SPR, commercial oil stockpile and delegated oil stockpile.Firstly, by building an uncertainty dynamic programming model named China’s SPR De-cision Analysis Model (CSDA Model), optimal purchasing and releasing strategies of China’s SPR was quantificationally analyzed in this thesis. Then, based on the CSDA model, the research scope was expanded to commercial oil stockpiles and a model named China SPR and Commer-cial Oil Stockpile Model (CSCOS Model) was built to analyze the optimal operating strategies of China’s SPR and commercial oil stockpiles. Based on the conclusions of the CSDA model and CSCOS model, an auxiliary policy named delegated oil stockpile policy was proposed to speed up the purchasing speed of China’s SPR and the flexibility of China’s SPR policy for the first time in this thesis. The auxiliary policy could also strengthen China’s capability for coping with the oil supply storage. A multi-dimension dynamic programming model named China Pub-lic and Delegated Strategic Oil Stockpile Model (CPDSOS Model) was also built to analyze the relationship between the SPR policy and delegated oil stockpile policy quantificationally.At last, based on the analysis and discussion of the SPR and commercial oil stockpile, a China’s Multi-level Oil Stockpile System Analysis Model (CMOSS Model) was built. Relation-ships and impacts among the SPR, commercial oil stockpiles and delegated oil stockpiles were also discussed in this thesis. Policy implications for building multi-level oil stockpile system were derived, according to the discussion and conclusion of the models mentioned above. Based on the theory of dynamic programming and Chinese local conditions, this thesis quantificationally analyzed the strategies and policies of China’s multi-level oil stockpile sys-tem by building mathematical model. Optimal management strategies for SPR, commercial oil stockpile and delegated oil stockpile in different market conditions are obtained from this the-sis, which could provide reference for relevant policy-making progress and strengthen China’s energy security and abilities for coping with the oil supply storage.
Keywords/Search Tags:Energy Security, Oil Stockpile System, Strategic Petroleum Reserve, Man-aging Strategies, Dynamic Programming
PDF Full Text Request
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