Research On The Risk Assessment Of The Logistics System

This paper adopts set pair analysis, modern logistics and system safety theory to deeply study risk assessment index system of the logistics system, dynamic risk assessment method, quantitative risk assessment for logistics parks and safety planning of the logistics system.(1)Combining the modern logistics with system safety engineering and distinguishing risk and harmful factors of the logistics system, this paper provides basic structure of risk assessment index system of the logistics system from tactic programming and establishes the total goal and subgoal of assessment from synthetical safety management, logistics parks, highway transportation and logistics information. This index system can be built up by different assessment object and goal and determined different assessment emphases. It also can be decompounded, assembled, increased and reduced by practical need and give the attention problem during assessing. Then it establishes a risk assessment index system of the logistics system of the dangerous goods.(2)The risk assessment of the logistics system includes all kinds of uncertain information such as fuzzy, random, gray and non-integrated information. SPA can describe and dispose certain and uncertain system caused by uncertain factors and conquers the deficiency which the single theory solves single uncertain problem. A static value can be got from Gray Analytic Hierarchy Process (GAHP) and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCEM), viz. safety status of logistics system. And a connection degree function can be got from SPA. According to connection degree function and transforming of certain and uncertain items, safety status of logistics system can be reflected and its developing trend can be forecasted.(3)After researching the theory of SPA deeply, it brings the concept of pessimistic situation and calculating method, translates uncertain items into opposite items, confirms safety and dangerous state of system and reflects safety status of system by situation figure. The paper provides the method of how to partition risk grade of connection number. This method makes relatively certain dispose for certain and uncertain system reflects the risk change of system and embodies the safety status of system.(4)This paper provides the risk dynamic assessment method which gathers the status assessment with trend analysis. The method conquers the deficiency of existing static risk assessment method and deals with the problem of dynamic risk assessment of logistics system. Combining dynamic variable with static parameter, safety status of system can be reflected by situation figure, evaluates risk of system and predicts developing trend of safety status of system.(5)This paper brings procedure of quantitative risk assessment for logistics parks and identifies the hazards by system safety analysis method.The influencing range of primary incident caused by hazard can be calculated by accident consequence analytical method, and whether the risk is acceptable can be judges by the result of domino effect analysis and risk calculation. This method conquers the problem of enlarge and reduce the accident probability during calculating and makes the quantitative risk assessment for logistics parks more practical.(6)After studying the definition and content of safety planning of the logistics system, this paper determines the tactic orientation, makes safety planning from logistics base establishment system, busywork system and information system of the logistics and establishes the implementing scheme of safety planning of the logistics system.(7)This studies the safety planning of the logistics park from selecting location, safety management mode and emergency rescue system. Based on the risk assessment of the logistics system, safety planning can be adjusted, amended, improved and ensured to carry out availability.By the above-mentioned research, this paper builds assessment index system of logistics system of the dangerous goods, gives the dynamic assessment method based on SPA and quantitative risk assessment for logistics park, provides safety planning schedule of the city logistics system and gets a suit of intact risk assessment system of the logistics system.