Comprehensive Risk Management And Informantion System Research Of Grid Construction Project

With the rapid development of economy, electricity demand of Chaina boosted these years. Under the background of global energy saving and emission reduction, the emohasis of power construction investment transfer from the power to the grid in order to ensure the effective output of power and comprehensive reform of grid. The number of grid infrastructure projects (transmission and distribution grid infrastructure projects) is growing year by year. However, there is a lot of risk in the grid infrastructure project actual operations because of the large investment, long construction period, wide geographical span and other reasons in complex environment. So, reseach on the risk management of grid infrastructure project is very important. In this paper, based on the grid infrastructure enterprises, comprehensive risk management and information system of grid infrastructure project was studied according to the ideas of target system as the core, organization system as the basis, methodology as the means and process as the key. The research contents and results reflected in the following five aspects:(1) Based on the analysis for definition and strengths of comprehensive risk management of grid infrastructure, this paper provided a four-dimensional framework model from the perspectives of target system, organizational system, process system and methodology of risk management. The methodology provided operating tools for process system, and the organizational system using the process system provided services for target system.(2) Based on the core target system of risk management of grid infrastructure projet, this paper analyze the risk by establish a risk identification framework, from the perspectives of investment decision, preparation, construction and acceptance, handing over and operation. Classification of grid infrastructure project risk framework was studied to improve the following management efficiency with the Cloud Model and VIKOR method. In order to improve the reliability of the risk classification results, an expert group evaluation model was established to solve the problems about experts’ consistency and weights.(3) In view of the static and dynamic risk, this paper established risk assessment models for static risk of grid infrastructure project with Fuzzy theory and System Dynamics respectively, based on the analysis of common methods in risk assessment and combined with Risk Element Transmission theory. And the one, which was built by System Dynamics, was proved to be closer to the actual situation according to the comparison results of the two. To deal with the dynamic risk, a dynamic risk assessment model was established. It also discussed and analyzed about Risk Element Transmission phenomenon from the perspectives of cost, schedule, quality and safety.(4) Based on the dynamic risk assessment model of comprehensive risk management of grid infrastructure project, a risk warning model was established with the System Dynamics. Analyze the response methods to monitor infrastructure project risk. In view of the managers, analyze and design the incentives of grid infrastructure risk to decrease the subjective risk of owner project management department and improve the risk controlling and total income.(5) Based on the input and output analysis, a efficiency evaluation model of comprehensive risk management of grid infrastructure project was established combined with the connotation and theory of risk management efficiency and the models of degree of order and evaluation of entropy to analyze. Methods to improve the comprehensive risk management efficiency of grid infrastructure was also analyzed and discussed.(6) Based on the models of comprehensive risk management of grid infrastructure project, this paper did a research to establish an intelligent decision support system with the KDD theory. Given the key role of Web information for decision making in the complex Internet environment, extraction strategies were studied during the stage of data preparation, data mining and results of expression with the improved KNN algorithm. Based on the demand analysis, workflow and functions was designed containing data management, models and methods management, knowledge management, risk assessment, risk warning and so on. In this way, it has provided an intelligent tool for comprehensive risk management of grid infrastructure project.