Comprehensive Evaluation Of Energy Saving And Emission Reduction Performance Of Thermal Power Enterprises Based On Complex System Theory

With the rapid development of industry and economy, the human has brought the serious problems, such as environmental pollution, ecological destruction, energy resources shortage, during the creating of unprecedented huge material wealth and social civilization. As the largest developing country in the world, China has become one of the largest countries in energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. Therefore, it is necessary to accelerate the transformation of economic structure and economic growth mode, so as to promote the implementation of low energy consumption and emissions and gradually ease the contradiction among economic development, resources and environment in China.The priority of coal in the primary energy structure determines the priority of thermal power in the development pattern of the power generation industry. Thus, the performance of thermal power enterprise will directly affect the sustainability of the electric power industry and the national economic development. Therefore, the realization of energy conservation and emissions reduction in thermal power industry is the inevitable requirement of the sustainable development in our country. In recent years, the overall conditions of energy conservation and emissions reduction in thermal power industry still exist a big gap with the developed countries, though a certain achievements have been obtained. In order to further advance the implementation of energy saving and emissions reduction for thermal power enterprises, the supervision and evaluation of energy saving and emission reduction performance must be strengthened, so as to launch the management of energy conservation and emissions reduction and find out the focus of work. Nevertheless, there are various links and process influencing each other involved in the thermal power process, which belongs to the category of complex systems. Therefore, the research on the performance of energy saving and emission reduction in thermal power enterprise, should combine the complex features and evolution regularity of thermal power system on the basis of the traditional performance evaluation method.To solve the above problems, this paper constructs a scientific comprehensive evaluation system for the performance of energy saving and emission reduction in thermal power enterprises, which combines the multiple attribute decision making theory and complex systems approach. The evaluation model based on multiple attribute decision making model can reflect overall performance level of a thermal power enterprise at some point. In addition, in order to reflect the complex relationship among different factors in the system, and find out the key factors, a novel evaluation model based on complex system theory is proposed. Through teasing influence factors in each link of thermal power enterprise production factors affecting the performance of energy conservation and emissions, the dynamic evaluation of the energy saving and emission reduction systems in thermal power enterprise is established to find out the order parameters. Furthermore, the evaluation model based on order parameters and mutation theory is established. The identification of order parameters can replenish the result of traditional model. As a result, combining above evaluation ideas, the evaluation and management of energy saving and emission reduction in thermal power enterprise can be realized, from the perspectives of results and process, static point and the point.The paper consists of six parts:First, the complex features of the energy saving and emission reduction system in thermal power enterprise are analized. The complex system theories and the characteristics of the complex system are analyzed. Thereafter, the complex features of the energy saving and emission reduction system in thermal power enterprise are analized, which lays the theoretical foundation and realistic foundation of the performance evaluation of energy saving and emission reduction in the thermal power enterprise.Second, the connotation and evaluation features of energy saving and emission reduction in thermal power enterprise are analyzed. First of all, the relative policy and development situation of energy saving and emission reduction of the thermal power industry in China are summarized. Subsequently, based on the analysis of the connotation and evaluation features of energy saving and emission reduction, an evaluation frame based on multiple attribute decision making method and complex system theory is proposed.Third, the performance evaluation model of energy saving and emission reduction in thermal power enterprise based on multiple attribute decision making method is presented. First of all, a scientific and comprehensive evaluation system is established. According to the characteristics of the index system, the Analytic Network Process method is used to determine the weights of inicators, and the improved gray clustering decision-making methods is proposed to realize the static evaluation of the energy saving and emission reduction in thermal power enterprises.At last, an empirical analysis aiming at 300MW unit,600MW and 1000MW unitis is presented, the results indicate that the performance of 300MW unit is lower than others and the performance in June 2012 and June 2013 belongs to "middle" and "good" levels. The performance of 600MW is much better, in which the evaluation results are "good" and "excellent" levels in June 2012 and June 2013, respectively. The results indicate that the technological transformantion implementation project is significant and effective. The performance level in 1000MW units are both "good" in June 2012 and June 2013. The comprehensive clustering coefficients in two month indicate that its performance has improved.Fourth, the evaluation for the performance in thermal power enterprise based on complex system theory is presented. Combining the system dynamics diagram in thermal power enterprise, the dynamic associated indicators are selected. At the same time, the related theory of synergetics and three kinds of typical co-evolution model is analyzed, and the co-evolution model based on Langevin Equation of energy saving and emissions reduction system is established.Fifth, the performance evaluation of energy saving and emission reduction in thermal power enterprise based on complex system theory is presented. Comparing the three types of order parameters identification method, an order parameters identification method based on association analysis and adiabatic elimination method is proposed. After the parameters are identificated, the relationship between mutation theory and the order parameter is researched, as well as the relationship of the potential function and performance evaluation. On the basis of that, a systematic evaluation model based on synergetics and mutation theory is proposed. At last, an empirical analysis based on this model is presented, and the results show that "on-grid energy" and "smoke emissions of unit capacity" are the order parameters of the system, which are the key factors affecting performance of energy saving and emission reduction in thermal power enterprise. Meanwhile, based on the analysis of order parameters, the performanc in the enterprise is "cautionary" before the June 2012, and the performance is "favourable" after that.The research result provides a new idea and theory for the evaluation of the energy saving and emission reduction performance in thermal power enterprises,it will effectively promote the implementation of the energy saving and emission reduction for thermal power industry in China.