| China’s macroeconomic development has entered a period of new normal since 2010, accelerating the shift of economic structure and growth mode. The service industry becomes more and more important which assuming more responsibility in leading the growth and increasing more employment. At the international level, the global trade and investment rules result in a new round of adjustment. China’s service industry is facing pressure in the further opening. According to the domestic and foreign factors, the employment effect resulting from the opening of the service industry is the key issue of the current phase which needs for detailed discuss. Based on this background, this thesis seeks to explain how the opening of the service industry affects the number of employment and employment structure in the perspective of mode and industry.Whatever the index calculation is, using the commitment level which is estimated under the GATS, or the practical limitation level of the recent service trade, the level of China’s opening in service is much lower than that in developed economies, even in many other fields it is also lower than other emerging economies. There are still a lot of restrictions in financial services, telecommunications, transportation and other important service industries. In recent years, the opening of the service industry particularly the expansion of opening the service industries above is the key issue among China’s most important plurilateral trade, regional trade, bilateral trade or investment agreement negotiations.Among the four modes of service trade, the cross-border supply in service trade(Mode 1) and commercial presence in service trade(Mode 3) holds absolute proportion of overall service trade. And these two modes are most worthy of discuss on the employment effects. Generally, although the policy barriers aimed at cross-border supply are much lower than that aimed at commercial presence or movement of natural persons, we should pay attention to the employment effects of liberalization in this mode. One reason is that importing cross-border supply service is easier to replace the similar services in China. And the other hand is that China employer’s role of international service outsourcing began to grow up. In this thesis, I’ve selected six sectors which are easiest to realize cross-border supply in service trade based on the degree of trade. These six sectors accounted for one-third of current employment in China’s overall service industry. Through further measuring RCA index(revealed comparative advantage index) and TC index(Trade Competitiveness Index), I’ve distinguished the four sectors which have significant competitive disadvantages from the six sectors selected above. These four sectors account for one fifth of the employment proportion in China’s current overall service industry. In another word, the opening of service industry under the cross-border supply mode brings about competitive pressure to the one fifth of the employment. In addition, since the proportion of the employment growth and high-skilled labor in the service industry which has the higher degree of trade is generally higher than others, the opening of cross-border supply mode may have a negative effect on employment growth and structural upgrading.As the most important mode among service trade, using the commercial presence mode to achieve service trade accounted for more than half of total global service trades. Policy barriers aimed at commercial presence mode is also a major service trade restrictions. Because the FDI in service industry is the prerequisite of the commercial presence in service trade, there is no essential difference between opening of service industry under commercial presence mode or FDI mode. Through analyzing the employment effects of FDI, this thesis focus on how the opening of service industry under commercial presence mode impact on employment. By the analysis of FDI inflows, industry distribution and employment situation, the thesis argues that the employment effects of the current foreign capital inflows of China’s service depends on greenfield investments, more than half of the foreign capitals inflow to the employment have little effect, about one fifth have a obvious effect on the overall number of employment, and about a quarter produced structural effect. In addition, from the perspective of specific industries, the current FDI inflows of service industry influence employment services through wholesale and retail trade industry and transportation, storage and postal industry.On the basis of the foregoing analysis, the thesis take the service industry panel data from the year 2004 to 2012 and make an empirical research on how the factors of imports and FDI in service industry influence the number of China’s service industry employment and employment structure. The test results have showed that imports of services not only have a negative impact on the overall number of employment in the service industry, and lower the proportion of high-skilled labor in the total employment of service industry. As for the degree of trade, the import of service with higher degree of trade has a negative impact on employment structure, that with lower degree of trade has little impact; FDI also has a negative impact on number of employment in service industry, but it plays a critical role in the optimization of overall employment structure through transportation, storage and postal industry. The main reason may be that there is a higher introduction proportion of foreign investment in these industries.Finally, given the comprehensive analysis of the full thesis, it concerns on making policy suggestions to solve the problem of opening of service industry from the perspective of employment. The suggestions include providing the mode strategies, the industry strategies, and the regional differentiation open and investment guide strategies, bringing the employment contribution into the terms of social responsibility agreements, and strengthening targeted education reform and employment skills training.
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