A Research On The Influence Factors And Effect Of China’s Soybean Import Trade

China is the original county in producing soy bean with several thousand years of planting history. Our country is also the largest nation in yielding soybean. However, now China has declined to the rank of fourth among all the soy bean producing countries. In 2013 the production with only 1195 million tons far less than the production in the largest producing country USA.Contrary to the declining status, the consumption of China’s soy bean is increasing constantly. It has become the largest consumption country around the world with over 70 million tons of consumption yearly. The immense gap between production and consumption has to be bridged by import trade. As the greatest import country in the world, the proportion of soy bean import account for 60% in the total import throughout the world. The situation that this unprecedented enormous import, which soy bean import trade shows, sustained huge and rapid growth, received more and more attention.Since, the current soybean import trade situation has become an objective necessity, then there must be some reasons and some results for the existence of this situation. This paper focuses on the influence factors and the effect of soybean import trade, which will help us find out the rules and problems in China’s soybean import based on the research on the domestic and foreign influence factors, the influence direction, the influence degree and the variety of effects of soybean import trade.The content of this paper mainly includes the following parts:The first part includes chapter one and chapter two. In this part it mainly expounds the background and significance of the study, sets up the aim of study and main research content, introduces research idea and research method, illustrates the innovation point and its weakness, finally reviews and summarizes the theoretical basis and related research literature.The second part is the third chapter of this paper. This part uses the method of descriptive statistical analysis and comparative analysis to analyze the production, consumption and trade of soybean in the world and China. including the comparison between China and the world’s main soybean producing countries, consuming countries and trading countries, and the comparison of soybean production, consumption and trade in different historical periods in China.The third part is the fourth chapter of this paper. This paper expounds the demand of soybean with soybean industry development in China, and compares the supply and demand gap of soybean, calculates the gap between supply and demand, therefore makes clear the objective necessity.The fourth part includes the fifth chapter and the sixth chapter, This part analyzes the influence factors of the soybean import trade qualitatively and quantitatively. First it describes Systematically the influence factors of soybean imports from the supply factors, demand factors, the difference of soybean cost, price, quality at home and abroad, international trade agreements and soybean trade policy factors, and then uses the method of measurement model analysis to makes an empirical test and analysis on the influencing factors of China’s soybean import trade through the construction of gravity model accord with China’s soybean imports.The fifth part is the seventh chapter of this paper, expounds the effect of soybean import trade. First of all, illustrates the general effect of soybean import trade, including positive effects and negative effects, and then from the perspective of industrial development, based on the industry life cycle theory and industry sustainable development theory respectively, analyzes the effect of soybean import trade.The sixth part is the eighth chapter in this paper. Research conclusion and the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.In this paper, the conclusion mainly reflects in the following respects.First of all, the existence and development of China’s soybean import trade has objective inevitability. China’s soybean import trade volume is huge and sustained growth is mainly due to the supply and demand of soybean. In recent years, the supply of soybean in China has changed little, and even declined, the demand is increasing rapidly, and it is mainly concentrated in the soybean processing industry, which makes the development of soybean processing industry has a huge gap in supply and demand, and 2013/2014 year, the soybean supply and demand gap of soybean processing industry in the soybean processing industry is 66900000 tons and 1120000 tons, which still have expanding trend. Thereupon the existence and development of China’s soybean import trade has objective inevitability.Secondly, the soybean import trade is mainly affected by supply, demand, the difference of soybean cost, price, quality at home and abroad, international trade agreements and soybean trade policy and so on. The gravity model conclude that China’s GDP, population, trade partner’s soybean product, soybean meal consumption and WTO membership have positive affections to China’s soybean import quantity, and on the lever of 1% significance test is valid; the distance between China and other trade countries, China’s soybean product, China’s soybean oil import quantity, exchange rate was negative effect to China’s import quantity, and on the lever of 5% significance test is valid. Soybean trade countries’population has positive effect, but did not pass the significance test. The price ratio between China and international has negative effect, and pass the 5% significance test. GM safety management policy’s regression coefficient is only -0.000476, and the role is not significant.Finally, China’s soybean imports have met 80% proportion of China’s soybean consumption demand, saved 30000000 hectares of land and protected the planting area and yield of the main crops and then ensured the food security of our country. But at the same time, imports of soybeans also produce a negative effect, which can’t be ignored. For example, due to the large volume and the concentrated sources of soybean import, it results in that the safety level of soybean industry in our country in D grade is. It is a crisis state and is further deteriorating; Consumption of genetically modified soybeans (imported soybeans) may have a potential safety hazard in people’s physical health and ecological environment; Due to the conduction of the international soybean prices on domestic prices, the farmers’ income and growing enthusiasm are affected, resulting in shrinking in China’s soybeans area. From 2009 to 2013, the arable areas decrease 48000 ha per year. Transnational foodstuff corporation monopoly soybean trade market. China has less power on soybean’ import price, and it make soybean process industry’s product costs and profits can not be protected, and make it face giant management risks. Armington substitution elasticity of import soybean to domestic estimate value in short-term and long term are 1.72 and 4.5 respectively, import welfares fluctuate volatility and import welfare decrease obviously.In the angle of industry life cycle, during early stage time, it is hard to come into being trade demand and effects. in the development time, many soybean crush and bean products processing enterprises began import a small amount of soybeans, and in the industry mature time, they seriously rely on the soybeans import. In the industry recession time, the import soybean trade rebound and prosperous happen simultaneously. In the view of industry sustainable, China’s demand to soybean import trade is long term sustainable and permanently, so soybean trade should be necessary adjust and supplement to our country’s soybean industry sustainable development.