Research On The Risk Integrated Management System Of Large-scale Engineering Project

Along with the development trend of complicated project, the traditional management mode cannot meet the needs of the complexity of large-scale engineering project (LEP) management and a new and appropriate risk management mode and concept is urgently needed. Complex system theory provides some new paradigm for the study of project risk management, and combining with the project risk management theory of complexity science is the study of complexity to the problems of project management of the effective way. Modern Large-scale Engineering Project management is a very complicated work, which is complicated system engineering. Large construction project risk is very big, which is needed by many investors and participants to share the project risk. There are many different kinds of risks, and the relationships between various risks are complex in the Large-scale Engineering Project. Therefore, risk management must not be overlooked in the entire life cycle of the Large-scale Engineering Project.This paper reveals the complex adaptive features of Large-scale Engineering Project risk based on complex system theory, which analysis the elements of the information in Large-scale Engineering Project risk management. First of all, according to the risk prevention in the course of the construction, an integrated information management system based on the entire life cycle is constructed to analyze collaborative features of risk factors. Secondly, the establishment of risk structure system of Large-scale Engineering Project based on system science theory was used to analysis the synergy effect of risk, which establishes the two-dimensional diagram to confirm the level of emergent properties and the degree of collaborative in a whole system. Thirdly, on one hand, by building the bayesian estimation model based on balanced loss function, the risk of Large-scale Engineering Project is estimated for large construction projects, which combine the Monte Carlo methods. On the other hand, using earned value method for risk control, data processing is put forward according to the work breakdown structure and organizational breakdown structure for analysis of the strategy of implementation.In addition, using the relevant theories of expert system, the management information of large construction projects is processed, integrated and control. The expert system for Large-scale Engineering Project is designed for the coordination and optimization of the various project participants and projects.In this paper, the theory of development is mainly manifested in:(1) Risk analysis of large construction projects is discussed in this paper by using the complexity system theory, which introduces the predictability of event risk, controllability (probability and loss), and the transferability loss. The basis of multidimensional characteristics of LEP risk analysis is formed.(2) Based on the analysis of the information elements of large construction project risk, this paper puts forward the construction of large project information elements integrated management information system framework. Based on the analysis of coordination characteristics of large construction project risk factors, the knowledge system of integrated risk management is built in this rearch.(3) Design the related database, knowledge base, reasoning mechanism and related optimization method. An expert system for risk integration of LEP is desgined to make the project management information between the different stages of the project delivered accurately and fully.