| Under the new normal, the industry sector is still the main force of economic growth. However, in future industrialization efforts, we hope to improve the quality of industrial-led growth with energy conservation and emission reduction(ECER). Therefore, this study begins an analysis of China’s industrial growth drivers from the perspective of ECER. The main contents and conclusions are as follows.First of all, this study reviews the research foundation from theoretical and methodological aspects. Next, based on the theory of economic growth, the existing research results, and the actual situation of China’s industry, this study summarizes China’s industrial growth drivers without considering the ECER: physical and human capital, technological progress, and government regulations. Then, based on the above theoretical analysis and the application of environmental economics, energy economics, and energy- economy – environment, this study both evolves the theory of China’s industrial growth drivers and demonstrates the feasibility of industrial growth under ECER. In order to achieve the country’s industrial ECER growth, we need to combine actual China’s conditions with green credits and other green financial innovations, and to encourage physical and human capital in society to invest in industrial ECER projects or businesses. In addition, different from the past research of China’s industrial technological progress, in the four-element analytical framework after adding the energy and emission, our industry can then solve the external problems of production after further clarifying the properties of energy and emission, and changing their quasi-public goods and public goods properties under the current economic environment. According to the theory of induced technological progress, after undertaking the above mentioned work, the market mechanism will not fail, and the invisible hand will automatically adjust industrial technological progress departing from the energy and emission through the substitution effect. Thus it will promote the development of industry in the direction of energy conservation and pollution abatement. From our development process, regulations are always industrial growth drivers. Therefore, appropriate regulations and policies in line with the actual China’s industrial ECER regulations can push the industry towards the growth type of ECER. Finally, based on the above mentioned theory evolution, and in view of the actual situation of China’s industry, the existing research methods are improved appropriately. Three chapters of empirical research are presented on green credit, the bias of technological progress and the government’s environmental regulations. These research are undertaken in order to analyze the drive effect on the industrial ECER growth.First, this paper analyzes the drive effect of green credit, by introducing the nonlinear panel threshold model of industry, under the collective umbrella of green credit and ECER background. This study indicates that: the current green credit is a favorable aspect of industrial ECER growth, and is fast becoming instrumental as one of the industrial ECER growth drivers; however, the increase of green credit’s proportion will promote the decrease of output elasticity of the current and future investment related to pollution control. By effectively applying the gray system,this paper predicts the industrial growth path under the macroeconomic environment of the current ECER until approximately 2020. It further highlights that the decline of the industry growth rate is to be the "new normal" under the current macro conditions; thus, we should direct significant attention to the pressure of industrial growth, as relating to the implementation of green credit. Finance currently belongs to the third industry, and its basic function is to promote its own development through the service of the real economy. At the current stage, in order to ensure that the industrial economy upgrades to ECER, we first need to develop a viable and pragmatic financial environment of ECER, and; thus, extend the green credit creating a compatible and successful green financial innovation.Second, this paper studies the drive effect of technological progress bias on China’s industrial ECER growth. From the perspective of ECER, technological progress at structural level may not only direct the traditional elements of capital or labor, but also those of energy usage and pollution emission. In the framework of extensions to the four elements, this paper estimates the industrial technological progress bias in respect of traditional capital and labor by ridge regression. An analysis of industrial technological progress structure finds that industry at this stage still depends on energy usage and pollution emission relative to capital and labor. However, this trend is in decline. Moreover, industrial technological progress is largely derived from the consumption of energy and the pollution of air and water, etc.. The technological progress of traditional capital and labor has been relatively minor. Over the past years, industrial technological progress has directed energy and emission. Due to limited energy resources and a deteriorating ecological environment, this characteristic is unsustainable. Therefore, it is imperative that industrial technological progress towards non-energy and non-polluting become the direction of the future. This direction will be the driving force of structural transformation in industrial technological progress.Third, this paper studies the drive effect of ECER environmental regulations, as related to the China’s industrial ECER growth, by progressively internalizing the environmental regulation proxy variable to the productivity index model. Through the introduction of a Shannon entropy; non-racial, non-oriented and the slacks-based model(SBM), this paper constructs models, which contain included and non-included energy and pollution productivity index respectively, and also an ECER technique index. The measurement results reflect that:(1) The existing ECER environmental regulations have once hampered the industrial growth in a short period of time. Eventually, they have become a driving force toward the enhancement of industrial growth; coupled with the adjustment and the strict implementation of specific regulations and policies. At present, industrial growth has the energy conservation and pollution abatement connotation, which is significantly changing or altering the developmental pattern from extensive to intensive. The empirical results also preliminarily validate the Potter hypothesis within the China’s industry.(2) The lower the level of industrialization, the more relatively effective the command and control regulations are; while the command and control regulation’s promotional effect of efficiency change is superior to that of the promotional effect of technical change for the ECER technique. With the highly progressive development of the China’s economy and society, as relating to the case of gradually, but strategically balancing the price of energy and establishing the emission rights market, our regulation tools can foster an appropriate transfer, from command and control to a market-based incentive. For the relatively developed regions, as people’s level of awareness of environmental protection is increased, we can gradually and systematically encourage them to take the lead in effectively utilizing public participation as a viable regulation tool.(3) Industrial ECER efficiency of regions were uneven; reflecting asymmetry during the sample period. Thus, we should carefully analyze and summarize the experience within the development of Eastern industry, as well as provide a solid and reliable reference for industrial development in the Central and Western regions. Overall, the factor of ECER environmental regulation, if used improperly, will inhibit industrial growth; however, if used properly, it will sufficiently meet or exceed the needs of China’s industrial production, and should become a significant driving force to substantially promote the growth of the China’s industrial sector.In short, under the requirements of ECER, although physical and human capital are still very important driving factors for China’s industrial growth, we should guide industrial growth in a ECER direction, through the utilization of green credit and other green finance innovations. The existing industrial technological progress biases energy usage and pollutant emissions, while in the future, we should start with the basic structure of technological progress. We should resolve to balance and maintain a reasonable price system for energy, pollution emission costs, and property rights, while avoiding external effects, so that the appropriate and acceptable costs of industrial production can be the correct and consensual response. Furthermore, the market mechanism will reflect a spontaneous adjustment to industrial production, to deviate from the present over-reliance on energy and emissions. ECER regulations contain suitable measures or strategies for the high energy consumption and high pollution emission industry. Under the requirements of ECER, in order to make the appropriate corresponding changes, it depends on the difference between selecting proper regulation tools, to facilitate acceptance; thus, inspiring regions to be more conducive to industrial ECER growth, in the future.
|
PDF Full Text Request