Agricultural Pollution Emission Reduction And Green Productivity Research In China

Based on the environmental regulation activity analysis model, this paper usesthe modified Global Malmquist-Luenberger productivity index (GML) to estimate theregional agricultural green productivity index after having estimated3kinds ofagricultural pollutants emissions by using inventory analysis in28provinces of Chinaduring1995～2009. And estimate the pollution reduction efficiency, reductionpotential and regional distribution of the three kinds of pollutants, points out that theeastern region efficiency is significantly higher than the Midwest, while emissionsreduction potential is lager in the Midwest. After setting of different agriculturalgrowth and emission reduction modes, we predict the change of the agricultural greenproductivity growth in the next10years under various combination modes.Some conclusions are as follows:(1) The annual growth rate of TFP of greenagricultural during1995～2009is about0.8%, which is far less than the estimateresults of not considering or incorrectly handling of agricultural pollution. Meanwhile,the contributions of green TFP is also far behind the input factors’ contributions.(2)The eastern green agricultural TFP growth is faster than the Mid-western growthrate in general, but the disparity is large at different stages.(3)As long as keepingagricultural moderate growth, greater intensity of emission reduction modes do notlead to the decline of agricultural TFP, but stimulate its sustainable growth.