Research On The Potential Economic Effects Of Commercialization Of Genetically Modified Sugarcane In China

Facing the double pressures on population growth and land reduction, it is undoubtedly an effective way to improve output per unit area by modern biological technology. Given the shortcomings of traditional crossbreeding approach on improving sugarcane productivity, the international sugarcane industry tends to use transgenic technology for the breakthrough to the further improvement of sugarcane varieties. Sugarcane is an asexual reproduction crop, and the sucrose generated from Genetically Modified (GM) sugarcane is crystallized by boiling at 107 t, which makes it unable to detect the protein composition encoded by the exotic gene. Therefore, sugarcane is classified as a GM crop of which the safety risk level is the lowest (I), and this is propitious to the commercialization of GM sugarcane and also indicates that GM sugarcane varieties will most probably be one of the key technology to improve the sugarcane productivity. Based on analyzing the dynamic mechanism for the commercialization of GM sugarcane in China, this research references the classic model of economic influences, estimating the potential economic effects and establishing the framework of safety management system for GM sugarcane. This present study aims at providing some theoretical and scientific basis for decision making of the commercialization of GM sugarcane.This research discusses the topic in the following aspects:1. Elaborating the background and significance of the commercialization of GM crop; 2. Summarizing the literature reviews worldwide on safety management and economic influences of the commercialization of GM crop; 3. Introducing the analytical framework of the potential economic effects of GM sugarcane and methods; 4. Analyzing the dynamic mechanism for the commercialization of GM sugarcane in China, including the laws and policies, the development potential of GM sugarcane and the hiders of conventional sugarcane industry; 5. Taking stem borer-resistant GM sugarcane for example and forecasting the famer’s income and social welfare which are generated from its commercialization by use of direct cost-benefit method and DREAM model; 6. Proposing a framework of the safety managemen t of GM sugarcane which establishes on every stage of its commercialization and trying to analyze its mechanism by means of economic theory on sugarcane’s supply and demand market, government supervision, safety and social welfare; 7. Putting forward some suggestions to guarantee the successful commercialization of GM sugarcane in China.This research draws the main following conclusions:1. In the opportunities for the commercialization of GM sugarcane, this research reveals that China has got the foundations to realize the commercialization of GM sugarcane, no matter in the external or internal conditions, through analyzing the laws and policies, the hiders of conventional sugarcane industry and the development potential of GM sugarcane in China; 2. Regarding the economic benefits of GM sugarcane, planting stem borer-resistant GM sugarcane can not only greatly improve the farmer’s income but the social welfare; 3. In the safety management of GM sugarcane, this research provides a framework of safety management system for GM sugarcane. Meanwhile, based on the economic analysis of that system’s mechanism, this research demonstrates that the safety management system of GM sugarcane has a positive effect to the price regulation ability of GM sugarcane’s market, the government regulation, and the increasing of social welfare.For better promoting the commercialization of GM sugarcane in China, some suggestions were put forward in this research:1. In order to avoid the shortages of market failure in the early commercialization, it should depend on government-led way to accelerate the commercialization of GM sugarcane; 2. The regulatory system should be improved, and a special laws and regulations for the commercialization of GM sugarcane should also be established based on the existing laws in China and the characteristics of sugarcane; 3. In order to ensure the integrity of GM sugarcane’s genetic resources and preventing the process of commercialization from property rights problems, the cultivation of GM sugarcane equipped with intellectual property rights should be promoted; 4. A safety management system for GM sugarcane, especially its information platform, should be established; 5. The mechanism for public participation should be strengthened and a communication mechanism between government, scientific research institutions, companies and science and technology associations should also be established to protect the public rights to information and freedom of choice.Owing to the condition that this research is carried out before the commercialization of GM sugarcane in China, it will be limited to the following aspects:1. Considering the diversity of GM sugarcane varieties, this research takes stem borer-resistant GM sugarcane which has been studied maturely as a research object. However, it is hard to be cultivated by traditional crossbreeding and cannot completely summarize the characteristics, safety and economic influences of the existing and future GM sugarcane varieties; 2. The time span of data collection on stem borer’ hazard during the research procedure is limited, so it may affect the quality of the data which should be improved in the future.