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Study On China’s Food Security In The New Situation

Posted on:2017-02-09Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:Y WangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330485484866Subject:Agricultural Information Analysis
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
Grain is not only an important source of meeting people’s living, but also an important guarantee of supplying human’s nutrition, which is also the most important part in agricultural development. Ensuring grain security related to grain supply, grain demand,domestic and foreign grain tradeetc. Suitable grain security issue measures were taken in different development stages and periods of our country. How to guarantee food security in China under new situation is of great significance. Mathematical model, econometrics, grain economics and other relative theory were chosen as foundation, combining quantitative and qualitative analysis method, problems of guaranteeing grain security were build in model and analyzed in research, evolution course and history law of China’s grain production, consumption and trade were detailedly analyzed in this paper. Compared with domestic and international food security situation, China’s grain security problem including grain production, grain consumption and grain trade were revealed, suggestion to guarantee grain safety of our country were put forward in this paper. Major conclusions are as follows:1. Land, labor and other costs of grain has been constantly rising in China, cost of grain production has entered the period of rapid rise in China, which has been increasingly close to the level of Switzerland, Japan and South Korea and other countries, and the gap has constantly been widen with the major grain exporting countries such as United States, Canada. Comparative effectiveness of domestic grain production has straightly declined.2. Although China’s grain production has been increased for many years, in fact advantage regions of grain production did not play a significant role in the food supply and nondominant areas of grain production are at the cost of resource environment to exchange for grain production. Overall grain production pattern is gradually strengthened from the center to the edge. Grain production status of central and southern regions is declining, while grain production status of western and northeast regions has been strengthened. Traditional division of grain primary production provinces, primary consumption provinces and balance provinces of production and marketing can not generalize the change of grain production status in each province. Grain production in different provinces depending on scale advantages to ensure food security has no fundamental change for ten years. Extensive production mode relying on investment of a certain amount of land resources to guarantee grain production has been still continuous. The situation that grain production relies too much on seeded area and continuous decrease of the marginal revenue of land has not been changed.3. Our country is in rapid upgrading stage of food structure, where consumption structure is more rational, grain ration consumption tends to be stable. However, compared with food nutrition programs and international standard, food consumption structure, consumption quantity and nutritional security have to be improved in China. Based on nutritional goals(per capita daily energy is 1800 kcal, 2200 kcal and 2400kcal), per capita demand for grain rations are 116.93 kg, 142.91 kg and 155.90 kg. Per capita grain possession will be expected to 446.60 kg, 461.00 kg and 476.37 kg in 2020, 2025 and 2030(calculated on the basis of the medium level), total demands for grain are respectively 6.37 million tons, 6.66 million tons and 6.92 million tons.4. Since the WTO entry, China’s grain trade volume has been continuous to increase, increase of import volume was significantly higher than range of export growth, net imports has been sharply increase, trade deficit has been continuous to expand, which propose severe test to ability of China’s grain storage and digest. When China’s grain self-sufficiency rate has been continuous to decline and grain trade dependence has been rising, major varieties of grain, rice, wheat and corn, still maintained higher self-sufficiency rate and grain trade dependence degree is not high. But international trade in cereals, rice, wheat and corn has totally been under comparative disadvantage state.5. Policy recommendations of grain security: accelerate reform of supply and increase income of farmers; protect strictly conservation and other basic resources elements; accelerate to build three major grain producing area; break through bottleneck restricting on agricultural science and technology innovation; develop resources saving and environmental friendly agriculture; improve market regulation mechanism and agricultural subsidy policy; cultivate new type of agriculture subject and build new operating system; universal nutrition diet and reduce food waste.
Keywords/Search Tags:food security, comparative advantage, production cost, nutritional requirement
PDF Full Text Request
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