Integrated Evaluation Of Agricultural Water-saving Technologies For Adapting Climate Change

Global climate change has become a fact recognized all over the world. The rise of temperatureand the change of precipitation and sunshine would enhance the sensitivity of agricultural production.Promoting agricultural water-saving technology reasonably, is an important guarantee for agriculturalsustainable development in China. Therefore, it is critical to learn the basic situation of the climaticresources in China and find out the applied conditions of the agricultural water-saving technologies. Byevaluating the suitable areas of agricultural water-saving technologies, we would be able to mitigatedrought and cold damage caused by climate change, and promote the social sustainable development inChina.In this study, we focus on two research periods, i.e.,1981-2010and2011-2040under B₂scenario.We collected meteorological data, the crop growth period data, the basic agricultural production,national soil data and national DEM data, etc. By using GIS, stepwise multiple regression and grayprediction methods, we calculated the average annual temperature, rainfall, solar radiation, sowing timeand maturity time of maize and its planting efficiency in both periods. The objectives are (i) to constructthe evaluation index system of agricultural water-saving technology,(ii) to achieve the comprehensiveevaluation models of water-saving technologies through Rough set theory, fuzzy mathematical theoryand the analytic hierarchy process, were achieved, and (iii) to predict the suitable areas of plastic filmmulching, minimum tillage and no-tillage technology, and water harvesting technology in B₂scenario.So the assessment and recommendation of agricultural water-saving technologies were achieved. Themain conclusions are as followed:(1) During the period of1981-2010, the suitable areas of plastic film mulching maize in Chinaincluded: the south of Heilongjiang, the west of JiLin and Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, HeBei, ShanXi,HeNan, the north of JiangSu and AnHui, ShaanXi, GanSu, NingXia and XinJiang. For the period of2011-2040(B₂scenario), the suitable areas may be expanded to Northeast of China (without GreaterKhingan Range area), North China, and Northwest, the south of JiangSu and AnHui, the north ofJiangXi and ZheJiang provinces as compared with the1981-2010period.(2) The core meteorological factors of Minimum tillage and no-tillage were temperature andprecipitation, while the key indicators for climate suitability evaluation of minimum tillage andno-tillage were precipitation and≥10℃accumulated temperature. During the period of1981-2010,the suitable areas of minimum tillage and no-tillage maize in China included: the east of HeiLongJiangand Jilin, Liaoning; the southern part of HeBei and ShanXi, ShanDong, HeNan; the central and southernof ShaanXi, the Lower Yangtze Region, ChongQing, SiChuan, YunNan, GuiZhou and South China. Forthe period of2011-2040(B₂scenario), the suitable areas would be expanded when compared with theperiod of1981-2010.(3) The suitable area water harvesting technology mainly includes: the west of HeiLongjiang Province, JiLin, LiaoNing, Inner Mongolia, Hebei, ShanXi, Eastern ShanDong, northern HeNan,ShaanXi, Eastern GanSu, southern NingXia, and Eastern SiChuan in the period of1981-2010. In the B₂scenario of2011-2040periods, the suitable regions of water harvesting technology may be moreconcentrated, and the low-level suitable areas would become smaller comparing with the period of1981-2010.(4) According to field survey and the Delphi method, the evaluation index of agriculturalwater-saving technology was constructed, which had considered ecological, economy and societyfactors. Using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Rough Set and ARM (a full evaluation model basedon AHP and Rough Set), the existing major agricultural water-saving technologies, such as plasticmulch, straw mulch and furrow irrigation technologies were evaluated in WuWei City, GanSu province.The results showed that plastic mulch technology would be the best agricultural water-savingtechnology in the Northwest of China. However, straw mulch technology demonstrated a highecological benefit but low economic benefit.(5) We built the agricultural basic database based on climate resources data, cultivated land data,crop data and the data of agricultural technology across13major grain production provinces andChongQing, GanSu and XinJiang provinces. By using the multi-objective comprehensive evaluationmethod, we would be able to provide the recommended agricultural technologies for every second levelagricultural cultivation area in each province, and thus provide the technical support for regionalagriculture sustainable development.Overall, this study discovered the suitability assessment of agricultural technology under thebackground of climate change and the comprehensive evaluation for the existing water-savingagriculture technology. Based on the connotation and extension of agricultural water-savingtechnologies, our research would supply suitale agricultural structural adjustment to adapting climatechange and the implementation and promotion of agricultural technology, promote the agriculturesustainable development in different regions.