Research On Analyzing, Modeling And Applications Of Military Conflict Decision-making Oriented To Human-caused Complexity

The research on Military Conflict Decision-making (MCD) oriented to Human- caused Complexity (HCC) is guided by the complexity of military complex systems caused by human involving. This dissertation studies thoroughly and systematically on the analyzing, modeling and applications of MCD under uncertainty environments from the view of HCC. The MCD can be seen as a particular kind of Human-caused Complex Problems (HCCP) and analyzed using Multi-Agent Influence Diagrams (MAID), Games and Hypergame. The proposed Network of Games (NoG) model is used to model and solve MCD which is described as Hypergame problems. The new research perspective of MCD is of great theoretical significance and application importance. The main results and contribution of this dissertation are as follows.(1) The theoretical foundation of MCD oriented to HCC is investigated.Complexity, HCC and HCCP are conceptual foundation of this dissertation. The solving framework of HCCP is the methodological foundation of the subsequential research. On the basis of a new conceptual system of complexity, the general epistemic framework of complexity is constructed for conciliating some famous contrary viewpoints. Hoping this conceptual system and the general epistemic framework can further researches and applications of the complexity notions and complexity-oriented problems. With the important concepts of HCC and HCCP as the foundation, it is elucidated that MCD is a representative kind of HCCP. Then the eight complexity features of MCD and the relationships between them and HCC are analyzed. Finally, the abstract solving framework of HCCP is established including two steps which are respectively building and transforming conceptual framework. A mathematical model provides rigorous inference basis for the second step of this framework.(2) The analytical framework of MCD oriented to HCC is constructed.The conceptual analytical framework of MCD oriented to HCC provides a new angle of view on describing and understanding MCD behavior in reality. There are two stages in the building of analytical framework of MCD oriented to HCC. Firstly, the framework is constructed based on MAID and Games. With the problems of MCD under game theory, the circular dependence decision behavior can be captured and handled using MAID. Secondly, considering most military conflicts in reality are under uncertainty environments and the hypotheses of common knowledge and rationality are no longer satisfied, the transforming framework is established based on MAID and Hypergame. The research of the conceptual analytical framework is conformed to the basic idea of the solving framework of HCCP whose guidance is verified again.(3) The Network of Games (NoG) model is proposed, based on which the modeling and applications of MCD are investigated. The NoG model which is defined as a graphical model of the Hypergame problem can capture fundamental futures of Hypergame. The definition and analytic expression of NoG are presented and two examples are used to show the modeling effect of the NoG model. On the basis of inducing Individual NoG (INoG), the mapping operator of belief is defined, the belief structure of NoG is discussed and the proposition of INoG is a map of NoG in one player's belief is proved. Two kinds of solution concepts are developed. Equilibrium solutions represent agents'best strategies given their beliefs over others. Optimal solutions represent how agents may deviate from their equilibrium solutions. At the end the basic procedures to model Hypergame problems using NoG are created. The MCD method based on NoG induces mechanisms to deal with uncertainty and bounded rationality. The resolving of MCD can be regarded as the process of building, updating and resolving of the decision-maker's INoG. Then the basic processes of the new proposed method are formulated. Finally, case study of two famous military plans"Left Hook"and"Sickle Cutting"imply the feasibility, validity and practicability of the proposed method.(4) The Extended-Network of Games (E-NoG) model is proposed, based onwhich the modeling and applications of MCD are investigated. Three E-NoG models are proposed on the basis of the above research. The modeling and applications of MCD oriented to more general problems are investigated based on E-NoG. Firstly, three kinds of Hypergame problems are defined and then Multidimensional NoG, Dynamic NoG and Hierarchical NoG are put forward. Secondly, the resolving of MCD problems characterized by multidimensional and dynamic is regarded as the process of modeling and resolving of the corresponding E-NoG models. The basic idea of resolving E-NoG model is to convert it to a simple NoG model. And using the resolving method of simple NoG models investigates the equilibrium and optimized solutions of these E-NoG models. Finally, the case study shows the modeling and resolving procedures of multidomain and multistage MCD problems based on E-NoG models. This part makes the NoG model and the MCD method based on NoG to be more practical and these two key contents of the dissertation to be of great theoretical significance and application importance.