Systematical Analysis On The Financial Exposure Of Our Country

Since the reform and opening to the outside world in 1978, fast growth has been made in the economy of our country. As the core of the market economy, finance has played a very important role in our economic development and reform, but we have still seen that, quite serious financial exposure will be faced with us, which indicates the exposures during the period of the economic transition because of finance, economy, society and history etc.. This can be obviously seen recently from the international economy, such as the collapse of the British Barlin Bank 1995; Mexico Financial Risk in 1982 and the South-east Asian Financial Crisis beginning in July 1997 and so on.As the financial crisis happened in the world tell us, once the exposures cannot be controlled effectively, that will cause a lot of trouble and further lead overall and systematical crisis, economic disorder and political crisis. Therefore, the studies on financial exposures are not merely the financial losses, but the vital realistic problems relating to economical and national safety. As a result, the globe focuses on distinguishing the exposures correctly; supervising it duly and accurately, so as to take measures to prevent and dissolve it. That is a also the important subject for us to study. At the national 2000 yearly finance 论文提要meeting held to discuss financial work, Premier Zhu gave further instruction to the People's Bank of China about the strengthening research on the financial exposure supervision and measurement. The supervision on financial exposure is the further step to quantify the exposure and it is the basis to take measures on keeping on guard and dissolving it.In recent years, much useful exploration has been made on the research in the quantitative and qualitative analyses in the theoretical circle domestic and abroad and the relevant departments. Many mature theories and methods have formed. Still, there are some problems. First, there is much qualitative analysis focusing on the distinguishing financial exposures including its concept, category, feature, cause and the methods to keep on guard and dissolve them. There isn't enough quantitative analysis on how to supervise the financial exposure. Second, the methods are basically used to analyze the financial exposure in individual organs, individual project exposure or individual exposure target. There isn't enough systematical analysis on it, especially on the systematical analysis in regions and industries. Third, the foreign quantitative analysis is based on the market economy in the complete sense. It shows that it still lacks the quantitative analysis about the exposure in the economic transitional period of our country.The purpose of this dissertation is: 1) to analyze systematically the 论文提要financial exposure in the transitional period including the establishment of its systematical structure which is also called financial targeting system; 2) to define the exposure weighted target and appraise comprehensively the financial exposure. Therefore it provides some general systematical analyses, methods and research results for the management and studies.This dissertation points out that financial exposure is a kind of system. It can be used to analyze financial exposure with systematical thought and idea through the analysis on its basic features and define the basic procedure, content, goal, subject, object etc. which are in need of the systematical management. As a result, it follows the procedure and analyzes gradually. First, the financial exposures are distinguished and that contains its concept, feature, category and cause. Second, systematical analysis and statistics are used to set up the systematical structure through the using of the experience of and absorbing relating advanced thoughts and methods both home and broad. Third, step-by-step analysis is used to define the weighed index number and analyze its importance. Fourth, factor analysis is used to verify, revise and supplement the weighted target...