A Study Of Theories And Methods Of Fiscal Risk

To begin with the practice of economic reform and institutional transition in China, and drawing on other country's experience of fiscal risk management, this dissertation employs the relevant theories of modern management and economics to make a systemic research on the problems of theories and methods about Chinese fiscal risks. Specifically speaking, with the study of the public finance activity itself and the outside influential factors, this dissertation makes a comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the fiscal risk problems in China. In fact, the purpose of this dissertation is to solve such a modern fiscal theoretic problem that there are many disturbance factors leading to the decrease in government income and to the increase in loss or expenditure, and thus make government and organization be faced with fiscal risks. In this circumstance, the fiscal risk management becomes a key measure to improve and strengthen our public financial operation.In order to find the reasonable path to control and reduce Chinese fiscal risks, a multiple logical way of thinking of theoretical analysis and positive investigation has been endeavoured to improve the efficiency of public financial activity. As to the research methods, the combination of normative analysis and positive analysis are used. The normative analysis concentrates on the cause and result of fiscal risks while the positive analysis focuses on application of models to the concrete fiscal problems. In the process of research, the sequence of theoretical analysis, practice review, international and domestic comparison, control measures and policy advices is carried out. In addition, there are many important fiscal fields, such as the active fiscal policy, tax management system, budget regulations, fiscal revenue and expenditure, and government debt, etc, which are relevant to the operation of economy and to government fiscal activity in China. Thus, a comprehensive research into combination of the above important fiscal problems is made. At the same time, the modern financial risk management theory is thoroughly discussed. The contribution made in this dissertation can be used as the reference to the study of the fiscal risks from micro-point.In short, the purpose of this dissertation is to establish a basic framework for fiscal risk management and control in China which is particularly important for the country, like China, that is faced with dual tasks of structural reform and economic development. Therefore, the dissertation has made a great contribution to government's fiscal theory and practice. On the one hand, the behavior of government to reduce fiscal risks will naturally speed up the optimization of fiscal institution; on the other hand, the decrease in the fiscal risk will also help government enrich ways of conducting macro-economic management by employing fiscal policies. Thereby, it is much more important to realize the sustainable, rapid and smooth development of our national economy, and to fully advance the progress of our society. Finally, the new ideas of this dissertation include three aspects. One is the combination use of normative and positive measures. In fact, the existing research into fiscal risk almost focused on the qualitative discussion, but in this dissertation the combination of quantitative and qualitative methods is employed. Secondly, a complete research on fiscal risk has been done not only from theory to practice but also from a new angle of view. For example, in the analysis of early warning and control of fiscal risk, a three-factor model for evaluation of fiscal risk, based on AHP analysis method, is proposed and applied to the real data. Lastly, the risk-tree analysis method is put forward to develop the fiscal risk analysis model. To sum up, what the dissertation has made is to contribute to broadening and improving the existing theories of fiscal risk evaluation and control.