Financial Risk: Theoretical Research, Analysis, And Countermeasures

The national economic security has already become the core of national security in our times, and simultaneously fiscal security became the important component of the macroeconomic security. Our state's implementing positive fiscal policy since 1998 in succession, while bringing about an advance in macro economy, had formed national debt scale and public financial deficit level which repeatedly hit new peak. Thus making the study on financial risk question became task of top priority. This text, using the basic economics theories of risk, combining the basic law in public financial field, has elucidated the concept, nature, characteristic and classification of the fiscal risk. It brings the risk management theory systematically into the fiscal risk study and has analyzed the essential feature of the financial risk course emphatically. It elucidates the concepts, such as datum point upon which the financial risk will transform. The text uses the macroeconomic model to analyze the measurement mechanism of the financial risk datum point level. It describes the basic mechanism that the loss factor conducting with the whole macroeconomic environment in the financial system in detail at the same time. And it analyzed the original cause of the condition that transforms each other briefly and the basic theory of fiscal crisis. Under this theory frame, a series of indexes with effectiveness has been formed while analyzing through the datum point and financial risk factor. The article structures basic theories of administrative system of fiscal risk with characteristic of our country frame tentatively, including early warning index basket, financial content, such as risk planning, macro risk decision, the management information system of the risk, etc.. The article proposes the reform suggestion of set-up of our country fiscal risk administrative system. It finally proposes decision rules of national debt, fiscal revenue and expenditure and system innovation aiming at taking precautions against risk, for the consulting to make macroeconomic policy.