Export Trade To Promote Economic Growth Theories, Models And Empirical Research

Since the past two decades have witnessed the significant performance of both China's economic growth and its foreign trade, especially China's entry into WTO, the impact of foreign trade on China's economic growth has come into an important issue for the academic research, especially the influence of export on China's economic growth. Based on this situation, this dissertation attempts to utilize the growth theory and trade theory to explore how export promotes Chinas' economic growth.First of all, the author made a synthesis of those research outcomes about the driving forces of economic growth, and based on China's current condition, first applied the method of partial least squares (PLS) and the improved RPLS to the analysis of China's case. It has demonstrated that among the twelve variables that may affect China's economic growth, export plays a key role. Secondly, based on the analytical results of the first part, the author furthers to investigate the impact of export on China's economic growth. Advanced econometric methods of time series analysis, such as co-integration test, Granger causality test and error correction model, have been adopted to testify the impact of export on China's economic growth, while a case study of Hunan province has also been carried out. Thirdly, this dissertation has made a deeper investigation on how export promotes China's economic growth. Apart from the traditional theories, both new growth theory and new trade theory emphasize the great role of technological advances in economic growth. Therefore, a model of three sectors, respectively referring to domestic sector, manufacturing export sector and primary product export sector, has been established here to measure the technology spillover effects of export on domestic sector. Finally, based on a broader framework, this dissertation went on to investigate the relationship between openness and China's economic growth, while the result shows that though there exists a notable dispute about how to measure the degree of China's openness, the index of trade dependence still maintains the better one to reflect China's economic openness. In the meanwhile, Impulse Response Function (IRF) method and Forecasting Errors Variance Decomposition (FEVD) method, both of which are based on the vector auto-regression (VAR) system, are used here to investigate the dynamic relationshipbetween openness and China's economic growth.