Aging Analysis Of The Macroeconomic Effects Of The Old-age Security

Humanity has entered population-aging society. Population aging cause many problems and its effects on economy and society are being wider and deeper. The ongoing increase in longevity means retirement income is a crucial aspect of lifetime revenues for each individual, while the growth of pension funding is increasing the share of pension assets in households' net worth, and social society will have to provide more resource for supporting older people. This means the structure of national income distribution will be changed. Meanwhile, the relationship between pension system and macroeconomic system connect closely because of increasing population aging. Therefore, the economic analysis on population aging and pension system are not only the academic issues, but also the important practical issues.This thesis discusses the effects of population aging and pension system on macro-economy under the framework of macroeconomics. It begins with the evaluating the effects of population aging on economic growth. A variable of the rate of population aging has been introduced at first and then link with production function and the Solow growth model. In fact this is a useful means to analyze the effect of population aging on economic growth. Based on this analysis, the author has the new balanced growth path equation including the variable of rate of population aging. Using the new balanced growth path equation, the author proves that Acre are both positive and negative effects of population aging on economic growth; meanwhile the author proves that there is a state in which the effect of population aging on economic growth is zero, regard as critical condition. Then the author analyzes the effects of changing the rate of population aging on balanced growth path, output, and labor's consumption, and gets the different formulas of standard coefficient of retirements income.Second, the author discusses the effects of population aging on aggregate demand. The increasing of population aging makes the older people becomes more important part in demand side. The effects of population aging on demand are complex, and it may take different roles under different condition. The author analyzes the effects of population aging on aggregate demand by analyzing the population aging effects on the two factors of aggregate demand: consumption and investment. Then the author discusses the effects of the gap between old-age group's income and labor group's income on consumption.Third, the author analyzes the effects of population aging on pension system. The analysis concern three aspects: the effects of population aging on PAGY and funded pension system, the effects of population aging on the balance of pension finance, and the effects of population aging on the individual retirements benefit.Fourth, the author builds a framework of analyzing the economic effects of population aging and pension system by modeling, which combine both supply side and demand side. Then the author describes the mechanism of the modeling.Finally, the author estimates practical issues of population aging and pension system in China. First the author estimates the current situation of population aging in China; then, analyzes and forecasts the degree of population aging and population structure in the period of 2001-2050 in China, calculates the standard coefficient of retirements income in China according to the theoretic methods provided by the author's research, estimating the path of the ratio Of Chinese social security fund to GDP. In the end the author gives some policy recommendation based on the research.