On The Warning Forecast System In China's Urban Real Estate Industry

This dissertation has constructed a solidly theoretical analyzing foundation by having a detailed study on the long-run equilibrium in the urban real estate market, the uncertainties in the real estate economy, the economy cycle warning forecast and the theory of economy warning forecast. In the dissertation, the author has in detail analyzed the intrinsic relationship between the economy cycle in the real estate industry and the system of warning forecast in the real estate economy, has established the theoretic analyzing frame of the system of warning forecast in the real estate industry basing on the foregoing theoretic analysis and the practice of the warning forecast in China's real estate industry and some achievements of the former researchers, has revealed the logically internal law of the warning forecast system in urban real estate industry, and has extended the analysis on the warning situations, the warning features, the warning domains and so on. The economy cycle in the real estate outlines the essay and the warning forecast system in urban real estate has been established with the characters of the cycle changes. The analyzing methods mainly include the rational and positive analysis of economy theories, and also the methods of econometrics on the basis of broad investigations on the relative urban real estate markets, the former is the latter's theoretic foundation, and the latter is the direct application of the former. The author has pointed out that it's necessary to make a further research on the warning forecast system in the viewpoint of both theoretic and positive analysis, and that it's not sufficient to only pay heed to it, though those scattered and multi-visual angle analysis can provide some theorieswith abundant materials and methods, thus, in the course of the studying, the author has paid much attention to the related positive analysis and a great number of data.In order to have theories be integrated with practice, the essay has played an emphasis on the analysis of the economy warning forecast theory in the real estate industry, on the establishment of the warning forecast index system by the econometric methods, and on the justification about the rationality and the scientific nature of the constructed theories and methods by the actual data of the typical urban real estate markets.Chapter 1 serves as an introduction, discussing the studying backgrounds, the studying significance, the studying tendency, the studying technologic line, the studying frame, the studying methods and the studying characters of the topic in brief.Chapter 2 and 3 have in detail analyzed the fundamental theories of the urban real estate economy, especially the long-run equilibrium in the real estate economy, the uncertainties in the real estate economy, the two-way cause-effect and co-integration relationships between the investment in the real estate industry and GDP growth, the economy cycle in the real estate industry and the theoretic methods of the economy warning forecast. To begin with, the author has adopted the efficient 4-quadrant studying model to probe into the long-run equilibrium state and the interdependence relationship in the real estate market in all directions, pointed out that there are lots of uncertainly external distortions affecting the long-run equilibrium in the real estate market, which include the effects of macro-economic variables such as economy growth, forward interest rate and financial credit, and the effects of the public policies such as the governmental subsidy to the real estate industry (housing), local government's developing control, the financial supervising measures, the taxation in the real estate industry. Owing to those external distortions, the real estate industry is facing large quantity of uncertainties. Then, the author has extended the analysis on the uncertainties in the development of the real estate ndustry, mainly including the general theoretic based on uncertainty, the selection of econometric model to study uncertainty the lots of uncertainty problems...