Studies On Trend And Comprehensive Evaluation Of Sustainable Development Of Forest Resources In China

It is a vital theoretical and practical issue for sustainable development to evaluate on current and future condition of sustainable development, which affects the implement of strategy of sustainable development. Forestry is the main body of land ecological system. It is not only natural resources indispensable to human development, but also supporting system for life on earth. It plays an important role in economical and social development of human beings.In this paper, theories of sustainable development and system, methodology of open complex giant system, the guideline effects of system theory on sustainable development were discussed. Based on the systematic analysis on the cause and effect relationship of system, the developing trend of forest resources in China was predicted by establishing systematic and mimic model of forest resources. Based on this, simulating trials for forestry policies and projects were performed and then suggestions came out. In addition, based on systematic analysis of forest resources, the system of sustainable development of forest resources is defined. The paper also provides a conceptual model of sustainable development system of forest resources, which consisted of developing level, capacity and co-ordination of sustainable development. A vertical appraisal system of indices onsustainable development of forest resources is also provided according to the conceptual model. Furthermore, Methods and standards of comprehensive evaluation for sustainable development of forest resources are discussed. According to the standards of comprehensive evaluation, we divided condition of sustainable development of forest resources into six kinds: strong , basic, weak sustainable and un-sustainable development. Then, sustainable development of forest resources in China was firstly and dynamically evaluated with the help of several analytic methods. The paper also discusses the application of the Principal Component Analysis , the improved-Analytical Hierarchy Process(IAHP) method , directly-weighting method and a new method of getting variable weight was provided in the process of getting weight.Results showed that the stands volume and areas in China is continue increasing, situation of low quantity and unreasonable structure will be change with the development of forest resources; Sustainable development of forest resources was made slow progress influenced by the low developing capacity. It will be in basic sustainable development condition for long time in the future.