China's Financial Security And Early Warning Research

Today, to most of the nations in the world, financial safety has become a major issue in their economic development. After more than two decades' reform and opening up, China has experienced an overall economic development and has obtained outstanding achievements, but meanwhile, we cannot ignore the problems and difficulties occurring in this process. Though several turns of reform have been carried out, financial difficulty has not taken an essentially favourable turn so far, many deep-level problems have not been solved, and China's financial capability cannot match its responsibility in developing the national economy, all of which have put China's financial safety into a challenging position.Since the 1990s, developing countries have experienced several severe financial crises, with those in Mexico and Southeast Asia followed by ones in Russia and Brussels. In recent years, several problems also occurred in China's financial life. First of all, with the shift of social financial capacity transferring from government to the mass, the proportion of the revenue of both central and local governments in the country's GDP is declining, resulting in the shrinking of government's ability to adjust economy through financial means. Secondly, after the crisis in Southeast Asia, China has adopted an active financial policy and obviously improved deflation, but meanwhile, the burden of public debt and financial deficit has increased. If this tendency cannot be stopped, more and more hidden troubles might be accumulated and endanger China's financial safety.Traditional finance is consumption finance, whose economic adjusting ability is comparatively weak. During the Mercantile Era, in order to obtain super national power and cope with wars, the main goal of a nation's finance is to assemble revenue rather than to promote its economic development. During the period of free capitalism, just as what Adam Smith said, government acted as a night watchman. A nation's economy is adjusted by "the invisible hand", and the role of finance, this "visible hand", has been largely ignored. After the Keynes revolution, which was based on Roosevelt's new policy and planning economy in socialist countries in practice, more and more attention was paid to the role and function of finance in a national economic development. Since then, a nation's financial status has been closely related to its economic development. History has offered abundant proof that finance is both a means and an aim. If the safety of finance itself cannot be guaranteed, it's role and function cannot be realized consequently.In the thesis, the author first does a historic study of the relationship between finance and economic development, then works on the definition, alteration, and perfection of major concepts and on the movement of concepts, and finally manages to establish a rather comprehensive concept system, which includes financial safety, financial hidden trouble, financial danger, financial crisis, financial safety early-warning, financial danger solution, deficit safety, etc. In the thesis, the author offers a further definition and alternation of these concepts and forms a basic presentation system, following the presentation system's requirement of from abstraction to concrete.The thesis offers a study of financial danger and safety and the early-warning system both in theory and practical possibility. After necessary theoretical discussion on national financial safety and a comprehensive study of the interior and exterior factors leading to possible financial danger, the author presents his blueprint concerning national financial safety strategy and the early-warning system. The author holds that a nation's finance should not merely be regarded as a macroeconomic adjustment tool but rather a foundation of a nation's regime. Financial issues should be studied from the perspective of the broad angle of society and economy and could reflect some of the nation's social, political, and economic characteristics. Some of the views might not be mature enough and the...