| The new-type industrialization is a concept put forward according to the times characteristic of our country in the industrialization process. It regards the mutual promoting between informationization and industrialization as the key content and incorporates the idea of sustainable development in the industrialization process. It also gives play to the important role of science and technology as the primary productive force and sees that as the power mechanism for driving the industrialization. However, the problem of the imbalance between supply and demand exists in the science and technology system of our country for a long time. On one hand resources have been wasted because of the blindfold research and development. And on the other hand many science and technology problems having to be solved have not been researched or have been shelved because of the obstacle of the supply and demand channel even if having relevant research. The research and development of science and technology does not accord with the real science and technology demand and the realistic capability to meet science and technology demand. It is sure to form an obstacle for giving play to the science and technology productivity function to develop the new-type industrialization. So this dissertation has put forward the thesis of studying on the science and technology demand (STD) and science and technology capability (STC) based on the new-type industrialization. It regards the following as its researching purport: ①expounding the essence of STD ad STC; ②studying the law of STD based on the new-type industrialization; ③on the basis of second content studying the law of STC; ④confirming the main way that meets the science and technology demand based on the new-type industrialization. To a certain extent the dissertation will contribute to studying the theory of new-type industrialization and science and technology developing with economy in harmony and solving the problem of imbalance between supply and demand existing in the science and technology system of our country. Following the above research thoughts, this dissertation has researched the following content for the thesis of researching STD and STC on the basis of new-type industrialization. At first, it has defined the science and technology demand and structured the science and technology demand theoretical system radiating the microcosmic and macroscopical system for the researching purport of expounding the essence of STD and studying its law on the basis of new-type industrialization. After analyzing the intension and main contents of new-type industrialization, this dissertation has also researched the function mechanism that the new-type industrialization acted on the science and technology demand. Secondly this dissertation has put forward the concept of science and technology capability for researching how to meet the science and technology demand based on the new-type industrialization. For the science and technology capability of area (STCA), the dissertation has analyzed the influence that the new-type industrialization impacted on the science and technology capability of area in order to expounding its law on the basis of new-type industrialization from the quality aspect. Regarding the above as guidelines, the dissertation has researched how to quantize and predict STCA under the background of new-type industrialization in order to expounding its law from the quantity aspect. Finally, combining the studying results from the two aspects of quality and quantity, this dissertation has analyzed the main way how to meet the science and technology demand of our country on the basis of new-type industrialization namely the concrete action route. This dissertation has dissertated the above research contents through the following parts. Part one, introduction, is chapter one of this paper. In this part, the background and the effects, the domestic and international research at present, the maincontents and innovation of this dissertation have been explained. Finally the technological route of research of this paper and main contents planned to study have been confirmed. Part two, the basic theory analysis, forms chapter two of the paper. This chapter has expounded sustainable development theory, informationization theory, endogenous economy growth theory, demand theory and spillover effect theory. They are the basic theory supports to study science and technology demand and science and technology capability on basis of new-type industrialization in this paper. Part three, the theory structured, forms the content of chapter three of this paper. In this part, the theoretical system of the science and technology demand has been structured according to the primary theory analyzed in chapter two of this dissertation. And the intension, main content of new-type industrialization and the function mechanism for the science and technology demand have been studied. Meanwhile, for the problem how to meet science and technology demand on the basis of new-type industrialization, the concept of science and technology capability has been put forward. Selecting science and technology capability of area as the concrete research object, this dissertation has analyzed how the new-type industrialization influenced it. The key contents in this part include the following: 1. Intension of the new-type industrialization and its main contents have been analyzed deeply. The new-type industrialization means using inforaztionization to propel industrialization, which will, in turn, stimulate inforaztionization application featuring with high scientific and technological content, good economic returns, low resources consumption, little environmental pollution and a full display of advantages in human resources. It gives play to the important role of science and technology as the primary productive force, insists in the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education and that of sustainable development and correctly handles the relationships of development between the high and new technology industries and traditional industries, between capital and technology intensive industries and labor-intensive industries and between virtual economyand real economy so as to bring about an industry arrangement with high and new technology industries as the leader, basic and manufacturing industries as the kingpin and the service industry developing in all areas. On the basis of the above analysis, this paper has explained the main contents of the new-type industrialization from the following aspects: ①high scientific and technological content and good economic returns—intensifization requirement; ②using inforaztionization to propel industrialization, which will, in turn, stimulate inforaztionization application—core content; ③low resources consumption, little environmental pollution—ecology requirement; ④a full display of advantages in human resources—intelligence requirement; ⑤strategy support including the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education—power engine, the strategy of sustainable development—ecology restriction and the strategy of developing economy on the basis of harmonizing all areas—area development restriction. The goal requirement, content requirement and strategy support form the basic elements of the new-type industrialization theory. 2. The science and technology demand has been defined. The theoretical system of STD radiating the microcosmic and macroscopical system has also been structured for firm, industry and area STD and the endogenetic relationship among them. Using the demand theory and the spillover effect theory, this paper has defined science and technology demand as a demand brought forward by the supplier of science and technology in order to acquire the using function of science and technology products or goods under having demand channel in the course of the science and technology demander development. It is necessary to have demand desire, demander, supplier, demand target (science and technology goods or science and technology products) and demand channel for realizing the science and technology demand. The STD can be classified into tow pieces namely direct or potential science and technology demand. In this part, for the different characteristics of science and technology demand on different levels, the paper has expounded the STD on the level of firm and on which of industry and area. Furthermore, the dissertation has also explained their endogenetic relationship. 3. The concept of science and technology capability has been put forward andexplained. For the problem of how to meet science and technology demand, it is necessary to introduce the concept of science and technology capability. On one hand meeting science and technology demand would be influenced by the capability of science and technology supply to a certain extent. On the other hand, this problem would still involve how degree the science and technology demand required to be realized. Namely, what science and technology demand can be brought forward. So science and technology capability can be defined a capability to meet science and technology demand or be required by science and technology demand in a firm, an industry or an area. It shows an integrative capability integrated by the science and technology demand strength and that of potential hold by a science and technology demand system including demand desire, demander, supplier, demand target and demand channel on a function flat set up by science and technology demand in a firm, an industry or an area. This part has established a foundation for researching how to meet the science and technology on the basis of new-type industrialization. 4. The function mechanism has been explained that new-type industrialization acts on the science and technology demand. Selecting the science and technology of area as the research object, the problem how new-type industrialization influenced the science and technology of area has been analyzed. The new-type industrialization requires to use informationization to propel industrialization which will in turn stimulate informationization application, bring about an industrial arrangement with high and new technology industries as the leader, basic and manufacturing industries as the kingpin and the service industry developing in all areas and develop economy under the strategy of sustainable development and harmonizing development in all areas. These requirements act on the science and technology demand system including demand desire, demander, supplier, demand target and demand channel, which forms the action system of the new-type industrialization acting on science and technology demand. Meanwhile, the requirements of informationization, sustainable development, industry arrangement and the strategy of rejuvenating the country through science and education brought forward by the new-type industrialization form the main aspects of STCAinfluenced by new-type industrialization because it acts on the structure of science and technology capability of area. Therefore, the structure of science and technology capability of area on the basis of new-type industrialization has been disassembled into five elements: informationization capability, sustainable development capability, industry arrangement influence capability, scientific research and education support capability. Part four, quantity and prediction researches, consists of chapter four and chapter five. In this part, using the quality studies as guidance and quantitative research as means, this paper has studied the problems of quantization and prediction for the science and technology capability of area on the basis of new-type industrialization in order to expound its law from two aspects of quality and quantity. The key contents in this part are as follows: 1. The quantity index system of the science and technology capability of area based on new-type industrialization has been set up. Then the method of principal component analysis has been selected as the quantity research approach for the science and technology capability of area based on new-type industrialization. In this part, the paper has defined the intensity of science and technology capability in order to reflect the change of the science and technology capability of area on the basis of new-type industrialization. Then the paper set up the model of quantity for the intensity of science and technology capability based on new-type industrialization. At last, the index system and the quantity model has been verified by using them to measure the science and technology capability of our country on the basis of new-type industrialization. The results show that the quantity index system and model set up in this paper are rational and practical. 2. The method combined the artificial neural network with the orthogonal polynomial regression design and genetic algorithm has been put forward. Furthermore, it has been utilized into the forecast research for the science and technology capability of area based on the new-type industrialization. Taken example for forecasting the STCA of our country on the basis of new-type industrialization, the establishment process of network mode for forecasting the intensity of science and technology capacity of area has been studied. Then theoptimal structure of neural network for forecasting the intensity of science and technology capacity of our country on the basis of new-type industrialization has been established. This paper has formed the following central research conclusions in this part: (1) The mathematics model between the node number of hidden layer for forecasting the science and technology capability of area based on the new-type industrialization and the mean square error (MSE) can be established by using orthogonal polynomial regression design. The mathematics model of encoding space can be gotten by using quantitative index data of science and technology capability of our country based on new-type industrialization and the calculation value of the intensity of science and technology capacity. The significance test shows the confidence limit of regression equation is 99%, and the fitting result is good. (2) The mathematics model optimization with genetic algorithm can seek the optimal structure of neural network for forecasting the science and technology capability of area on the basis of new-type industrialization when the mean square error is the minimum. The mathematics model gaining from the orthogonal polynomial regression design has been optimized by genetic algorithm, the population size is 20, crossover probability is 0.7, and mutation probability is 0.04. Via the evolution of 100 generations, the optimization solution has been gotten, and function value of the goal is 0.00010101. The neural network of the optimization solution has been trained, the training error is 0.0000985532, which the difference is not obvious comparing with forecast result. This show that the method of combining the orthogonal polynomial regression design with genetic algorithm can optimize the structure of neural network for forecasting the science and technology capability of area based on the new-type industrialization. (3) Through the orthogonal polynomial regression design and model...
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