| This paper reports results of an empirical study on effects of institutional changes and intervention policies on grain supply. The evidences show that institutional arrangements may have some impacts on income distribution and efficiency of resource allocation. Therefor, some efforts should be made to estimate farm product response in the presence of farm programs and intervention policies. Pool data (time-series and cross-section data) from 11 prefectures of Jiangsu province, P.R.China during the period of 1982 –1997 were used for this project. This paper can be divided into there sections. Section one is introduction. Section two emphasizes on giving a brief summarization on literatures, which aims to build theoretical framework for empirical analysis of section there. Section two includes three chapters, where three different point of views were discussed Chapter two defined the meaning of institution and policy, discussed the cross relation between institution and policy, and extended it to mechanism of institution and policy on agriculture development performance. Then the relevant results of discussion were used to analyze some issues in Chinese grain sector. For providing a whole background of the following empirical study, brief reviews on important institutional changes and policy adjustment processes were made in chapter two. Contemporarily, important policy variables were identified by qualitative analysis. In chapter three, fundamental economic principles were employed to capture the characters of farm product supply, and explain factors affect ting agriculture supply. Empirical study has been carried out on growth and variability of grain production which composing the first two chapters of section there. First, in order to describe the characters of grain growth in each phase well and truly, the average growth ratio of grain, rice, and wheat in different phase were calculated by turn-over-line regression. Second, production function and supply response function of grain, rice, and wheat in the presence of institutional proxy variable and policy settlement variables were established, pool data (time-series and cross-section data) of 11 prefectures of Jiangsu province P.R.China from 1982 to 1997 were used to make analysis. Seeming Unrelated Regression (SUR) method and System Approach (SA) estimation method were introduced to improve estimation efficiency, and the results turned up trumps. At last, we make comprehensive use of traditional and modern statistical techniques to analyze features of planted acreage and production variability of grain, rice, and wheat respectively in chapter five. Some important conclusions were drawn from empirical study. These are as following: (a) The findings indicate that the dominant source of grain output growth during 1982-1984 period was the implementation of the HRS (household responsibility system), and foods poke nomarch response system (FPNRS) also promoted effectively short-term production and supply growth. Although it led to 2.2%, 7.6%, and 10.9% of growth in rice, grain, and wheat planted acreage respectively, it is still doubtful for it's long run effects. Procurement price had a positive impact on farmers'grain supply response. Farmers are sensitive to relative price between grain crops and cash crops. (b) Among traditional inputs, land holds the highest production elasticity. This implies that inducing farmers to allocate heir cultivate land between grain production and non-grain production, or even among vary cereals should be stressed in following administration. (c) More investment should be taken in enhancing wheat rather than rice production construction by government. (d) The minimum absolute value of the elasticity in planted acreage to the proportion of procurement quota with total production implies that it is unnecessary to worry about that procurement quota cutting down will cause planted acreage decline. (e) In general, the stability of Jiangsu Province is better than those of its parts. The implementation of the HRS and the FPNRS act as adding fuel to fire to the variability of grain production and supply. (f) The main source of production and supply variability came from main grain production region rather than developed region. Future policy design should avoid sympathetic vibration of production and supply variability among regions. That means the principle of comparative advantages must be observed. In chapter six of section there, more attention was paid to analyzing present grain marketing reform plan, and some suggestions were given.
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