Research On Evolution Of Mass Emergency And Its Preplan Construction

Mass Emergency is one important factor that influences the social stability and social security in the present period of social transition. Mass Emergency is also a crucial point that testing the executive ability of government. Correctly realizing and dealing with outburst Mass Emergency, it is of great real significance to ensure social stability, reduce social lost, maintain social stability and build harmonious society. The prior Mass Emergency preplan system has a certain positive function in dealing with the outburst Mass Emergency, but the shortcomings in pertinence and operation of the preplan are also exposed. Therefore, the preplan should be systematically constructed according to the evolutionary features of Mass Emergency.The paper serves Mass Emergency as a complex self-organizing system, and it does the dynamic research on the essence of Mass Emergency evolutionary process by applying the self-organizing theory and evolutionary game theory. Based on the analysis of Mass Emergency evolution, the Mass Emergency preplan constructure system is proposed by using the case-based reasoning theory and the scenario analysis method. Considering that Mess Emergency is characterized in difficult forecasting or even incapable of forecasting but requiring emergency disposal, considering that the relation of Mass Emergency is complex and needs to take apart the evolutionary essence, considering that the Mass Emergency preplan has the advanced preparing and supporting function to the Mass Emergency management, the paper, based on the basic theory in the field of management, social science, computer science and science of complexity, makes a detailed discussion on the evolutionary process and emergency preplan system of Mass Emergency. The main content of the paper comprises:(1) The basic theory analysis supporting the evolution of Mass Emergency and the constructing research of the emergency preplan. The Mass Emergency is systematically analyzed. The self-organizing theory and evolutionary game method are analyzed for supporting the basic theory of Mass Emergency evolutionary rules and of models. A reference model of the Mass Emergency evolutionary game is proposed. The scenario analysis method and case-based reasoning method for supporting the basic theory of emergency preplan constructing research are analyzed, and the combined mode of the two methods is also analyzed.(2) The research on the Mass Emergency evolutionary model. Based on the typical case analysis of the Mass Emergency, the self-organizing static structure and evolutionary game dynamic flow of Mass Emergency evolution are analyzed, based on which, the integrated evolutionary model of Mass Emergency is proposed. In addition, the main index influenced the Mass Emergency evolution is analyzed, and the influenced index system of Mass Emergency evolution is put forward. The research of this portion provides a basic support for the research of the emergency management and preplan construction of Mass Emergency.(3) The structure of preplan"case-scenario-preplan"system of Mass Emergency. Based on the evolutionary model of Mass Emergency system, the rule and directing ideology of the emergency management of Mass Emergency are proposed, and an emergency management system frame of Mass Emergency is proposed. The relation and position of the emergency preplan in the frame are illustrated. The preplan"case-scenario-preplan"system frame based on the case-based reasoning is put forward, and the preplan content model and case-based reasoning preplan actualizing model of Mass Emergency are built. The pick-up module of preplan scenario feature formed the model is studied and analyzed, and the function and mutual relation among the five branch modules are also studied and analyzed.(4) Constructing approach of preplan"case-scenario-preplan"of Mass Emergency. Based on the structure of preplan"case-scenario-preplan"system of Mass Emergency, the achieving thought and approach of the five branch modules in the Mass Emergency preplan system are studied by using scenario analysis, case-based reasoning method and relative indexing, searching and matching methods in computer system. The descriptive frame of preplan system case and the branch structural descriptive methods are put forward. The actualizing method of preplan system index module, case searching module and user interface module is designed. In addition, based on the scenario analysis, the generating flow frame of preplan system case is presented.(5) Realtime generation and validation of Mass Emergency preplan. The generating process of Mass Emergency preplan is illustrated in full detail. Taking Weng'an Mass Incident and the Mass Emergency currently occurred in S city as cases, the implement of Mass Emergency preplan system can be validated.The Mass Emergency can be analyzed in evolution by using self-organizing theory and evolutionary game theory, based on which, the Mass Evolution preplan system can be put forward by using case-based reasoning theory and scenario analysis theory. For analyzing the evolutionary essence of Mass Emergency and constructing the preplan system with pertinence and operation, it has a great theoretical and real significance for local government to deal with Mass Emergence effectively, thereby the evolutionary process of the emergency can be controlled, and the social stability and security can be ensured.