Research On Reasoning Model And Method Of Emergency Scenario Case Based On Multigranulation View

The "scenario-response" model has become the basic paradigm of emergency response decisions.In emergency response,decision makers face dilemmas such as time urgency,lack of information or experience.CBR is a technical method that can help decision makers get rid of difficulties and improve decision-making efficiency and quality.Scenario is the foundation and basis of emergency decision-making,so the knowledge representation of scenario case becomes the primary problem of case-based reasoning under the "scenario-response" mode.The cases of emergencies have the characteristics of rich knowledge,complex structure,cross-domain,multiple granularity and dynamic correlation,etc.,and the existing case representation methods mostly describe event cases as individuals with fixed structure,single granularity,and individual isolation.In face of complex practical problems,the efficiency and effectiveness of retrieval is very low,so there are great limitations in this.Based on the above background,this paper combines the theory of granular computing and applies the theory and method of scenario theory,concept lattice and hypergraph comprehensively to study the key techniques based on case-based reasoning in the "scenario-response" mode.The main research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Constructed a logical structure model of scenario case.Firstly,analyzed the static structure of the scenario,clarified the components of the emergency scene,and summarized the hierarchical structure of each type of element.Then analyzed the dynamic structure of the situation.By analyzing the scenario evolution process of emergencies,and giving the chain structure of scenario evolution.In the end,combined above two aspects,propose a vertical and horizontal interlaced scenario case logical structure model,and a case representation method suitable for the characteristics of the structure model.(2)Based on quotient space and the concept lattice,a scenario case organization model is proposed.Based on the understanding of the quotient space and concept lattice,the scenario quotient space and the scenario concept lattice are constructed,it can realize the division and organization of the scenario case,complete the description of the vertical structure of the scenario case.It also analyzed the advantages of the situation concept lattice,and proposed the construction method of the situation concept lattice.Based on the principle of concept promotion,the idea and implementation method of the concept of granularity of the concept concept are proposed.(3)A scenario chain model based on hypergraph is constructed.In the foundation of the analysis of the mechanism of scenario evolution,based on the hypergraph theory,the hyperlink model of the scenario chain is constructed,which realizes the description of the horizontal structure of the scenario case.The model not only describes the evolution process of the scenario chain,but also reflects the interactional relationships between scenario event and key elements.Based on the scenario chain hypergraph model,the risk assessment method of scenario elements is proposed by using the topological properties of hypergraphs.The scenario evolution rule mining method based on hyper-profile model of scenario chain is proposed.Based on the idea of super-edge and node granulation,the scenario-chain hypergraph model is proposed.(4)In order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of case retrieval,according to the characteristics of the scenario case structure model,a three-level retrieval strategy is proposed:scenario category retrieval,scenario chain retrieval and scenario feature retrieval.The retrieval process reflects the granularity change from coarse to fine.According to the three-level retrieval strategy,the corresponding similarity calculation methods are proposed,and also proposed the correction strategy and implementation ideas of the emergency plan.(5)Based on the above principles and ideas,a multi-granularity case-inference prototype system is designed and verified the validity and feasibility of the proposed model and method.The study not only provides a common framework and model for the representation and organization of cases in the "scenario-response" model,but also provides an important theoretical reference for case-based reasoning in the "scenario-response" model.It also provides a new idea for the "scenario-response" emergency decision theory research.