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Demographic Dividend, Pension Reforms And Economic Growth

Posted on:2006-10-19Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:X H ZhangFull Text:PDF
GTID:1117360152487566Subject:Population, resource and environmental economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The theory of demographic dividend is a new perspective of demographic economics which was developed by foreign economists to detect the economic consequences of the non-stationary state Population transitions. It is the forever research direction and career responsibility of macroeconomics and macroeconomists. The mainstream economic growth theories treat commonly capital,labour,technical advancement and institution transition as the major factors to fuel economic growth. Neoclassical economics took the population growth into account when it was looking for reasons to explain the great income difference among countries and predicted that the higher is the population growth rate,the lower is the per capital GDP in a country,and it was sustained by experiential data of many countries. However,these completed researches were all based on the assumption that the population growth steadily. It is unconformable with the population transition actuality of many countries. Due to the advancement of medical technique and health service,the transformation of people's procreate notion,the implement of family planning and so on,the demographic transitions of many countries are non-stationary state in modern society,especially from postwar. According to the related economic theory,the non-stationary population transition should effect weightily economic growth if we hold other factors . Fortunately,some foreign economistes' demonstration research supplied the experimental support for this economic theoretical logic. They named this kind of positive affect as "demographic dividend"which the non-stationary population transition can fuel economic growth. China population underwent a non-stationary state transition from it was found in 1949. Moreover,China population transition was charactered short duration,great fluctuant scope and "aging preceding richness"because the family planning was implemented strictly in China from 1970s. Whether did China population non-stationary transition effected positively economic growth? In other words,Whether did China population transition bring "demographic dividend"?How long can this "demographic dividend"sustain? Could we prolong the period of "demographic dividend"?And how to do? Being confronted of the forthcoming surgent "agedness tide",What kind of pension system should be established to supply the effective old age security for old people and maintain the high rate of economic growth in China? All of these problems pose the logical lead of this thesis. I divide the "demographic dividend"into "the first demographic dividend "and"the second demographic dividend"in the thesis. Further more,"the first demographic dividend"arises because the demographic transition induces changes in population age structure that raise the share of the population concentrated at the productive ages and increase the supply of labor,at the same time,the burden of population is lighter. "The second demographic dividend "arises as the rational economic subject respond to anticipated changes in popula -tion age structure,and smooth the whole income and consumption in his life to gain the maximum utility,the proportion of saving in the income in the period of productive age will be higher than that in the other period. Namely,"The second demographic dividend "is the economic growth droved by the high rate of national savings and increased capital supply due to high proportion of productive age population in the special period of demographic transition. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part includes chapter one,chapter two and chapter three. The second part includes chapter four to chapter seven. The chapter one is mostly about the relation between demographic and economic growth. We especially inspect the function of demographic transition to economic growth after analyses compositively the mainstream theory of economic growth. With the analytical framework of "demographic dividend"theory,we examined China's economic growth miracle from its openness and reformation,exposed the important act...
Keywords/Search Tags:Demographic Transition, Demographic Dividend, Pension System, Economic Growth
PDF Full Text Request
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