Research On The Economic Effect Of China’s Second Population Dividend On Economic Growth

With the aging of China’s population gradually increasing,the demographic dividend effect that has brought rapid economic development to China will face the crisis of extinction.In recent years,the academic circles have carried on many aspects research to the demographic dividend redevelopment.However,at present,most scholars focus on the traditional demographic dividend realized by the effect of labor force scale,that is,the so-called quantitative demographic dividend or the first demographic dividend.Some scholars have begun to shift the focus of research to the level of population quality,trying to use this as a breakthrough to stimulate the subsequent demographic dividend effect,such as the contribution of human capital to economic growth,that is,the so-called quality demographic dividend.However,under the background of China’s dual economic structure and the new urbanization construction of urban-rural integration,the urban-rural structure of population will also have an important impact on China’s future economic development.It can also provide a new perspective and new ideas for the sustainability of demographic dividend.Previous studies have rarely explored the demographic dividend from this perspective.Therefore,this paper studies the demographic dividend effect of China’s economic growth from three dimensions: population quantity,population quality and population urban-rural structure.This paper mainly analyzes the demographic dividend effect from two aspects:theoretical research,first defines the concept of three-dimensional demographic dividend,explains the mechanism of three-dimensional demographic dividend,and constructs a three-dimensional demographic dividend system.In terms of empirical analysis,the three-dimensional demographic dividend index is selected,that is,the quantitative demographic dividend index selects the population employment ratio and the total social dependency ratio.The qualitative demographic dividend index is divided into healthy human capital index and educational human capital index.Based on the data of 30 provinces in China from 1997 to 2018,the three-dimensional demographic dividend effect was analyzed by using the static regression and dynamic regression of the whole sample.The results show that the symbol of static regression and dynamic regression coefficient is basically consistent,but the effects of dynamic regression are weakened,but they all pass the significance test.In particular,the population employment ratio in the quantitative demographic dividend index has a significant positive guiding effect than the economic growth,while the total dependency ratio has a significant inhibitory effect;The human capital with high school degree or above and the human capital with college degree or above have a significant role in promoting economic growth.Finally,according to the results of the analysis,the policy recommendations of the demographic dividend effect of sustainable development are put forward.First,speed up the process of fully implementing the flexible retirement system to ensure that the active labor force continues to exert the quantitative demographic dividend effect;second,quickly construct and implement the re-employment market system for the elderly population to provide the basis for the development of the demographic dividend for the elderly;third,continue to increase investment in education to improve the educational dividend and give full play to the qualitative demographic dividend effect;fourth,continue to increase investment in health care to improve healthy human capital and develop the qualitative demographic dividend effect;and fifth,further optimize the construction of new urbanization and realize the high-quality structural demographic dividend effect.