Research On Risk Assessment Method For Large-scale Space Development Project Based On ANP-FCE Model

Large-scale space development project (LSDP) is a kind of project which possesses some small especial characteristics and is significant for the social economy development and national security .To these high risk projects, the quality of the implementation of risk management directly affects projects. Risk assessment is the key step of the project risk management process, and play very important role in the project risk management. The LSDP risks are characterized as diversity, multi-lays, nonlinear , thus, the conventional risk assessment methods which divide the whole project risk into independent and step-by-step structure is not fit for the practice. So it is very important to study new risk assessment methods to solve these large-scale complex projects.This dissertation is supported by the system management research of a large-scale space program. Based on the existed theories and methods of risk management, we present a new risk assessment method based on the ANP-FCE model to analyze the LSDP whose risk factors is diverse, interactive and interdependent. The method synthetically involves the analytic network process (ANP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation (FCE), and can be used to resolve the LSDP risk assessment problem. The main research and achievements of this dissertation are as follows.Firstly, according to the characters of the LSDP, we use the hierarchical holographic modeling (HHM) method to establish a more representative and universal HHM framework of the LSDP risk identify. Using this framework, we could identify risk factors of LSDP more thoroughly and systemically.Secondly, for the problem that the risk factors of the LSDP are interactive, we propose some principles and methods to build the risk evaluation indicators system of LSDP which seems like a network.Thirdly, we propose a new risk assessment method based on ANP-FCE model for the LSDP which synthetically involves the ANP and FCE. The new method offset the disadvantage of using analytic hierarchical process (AHP) to assess the risk of the large-scale complex system, and makes the distribution of priorities more reasonable. Moreover, it resolves the human's fuzzy understanding in the risk assessment. Thus, the new method integrates the two methods suitably.Finally, we apply the new method to a large-scale space development project, and build the risk evaluation network indicators system. Using the risk assessment method based on ANP-FCE model, we evaluate the risk level of the project and identify the key risk factors. These results can provide decision information for the project risk controlling and management.