Food Security And Cultivated Land Protection

Based on the history and current situation of grain production and cultivated land protection in Hunan Province, the fluctuations characteristics of grain production and its affecting factors were analyzed in this paper. Using qualitative and quantitative methods, the grain demand, cultivated land demand, amount of cultivated land reserved and grain production capacity of Hunan Province were predicted. Grain security predicting and warning models have been proposed and the states of grain security in Hunan Province were grasped effectively by using them. As a case study, Grain production, circulation and reserves, cultivated land protection, land transfer and other hot issues in 2 major grain-producing areas of Hunan Province, Liuyang city and Dingcheng district, were discussed further by the method of investigation.Inverstigation data of history and current situation were collected and researched as a basis in this paper. Since 1978, Hunan grain production capacity has been gradually increased. But because of natural and man-made factors affected, for Hunan grain output, there are certain differences between different years. Analysis showed that the cultivated land, disaster, acreage sown in grain crops, amount of fertilizer application had a direct impact on food production, and population growth and consumption levels are the main factors affecting on food demand. From the medium and long-term food supply situation in Hunan, there is a relatively tense relationship between food supply and demand, and Hunan grain demand will continue to rise in future.By using weighted Markov chain model, regression model and gray system model etc, result of predicting showed:In Hunan Province, grain demanded was 3266.75×104 tons in 2015 and 3684×104 tons in 2025, land demanded was 366.53×104 hectares in 2015, and 399.48×104 hectares in 2025. The supply of cultivated land will be 372.3358×104 hectares in 2015 and 370.0378×104 hectares in 2025; the food production capacity will be 3328.68×104 tons in 2015 and 3412.49×104 tons in 2025. The future supply of cultivated land and food production capacity in Hunan Province may suffice for the demand in 2015, and will be lower than demand in 2025. The projection result would provide a basis for suggesting food security guarantee in Hunan.Assessment results on the state of food security in Hunan Provine by using combination analysis method of entropy and gray correlation showed that, fluctuation of level of food security in Hunan was in fluctuation state. Since the reform and opening up, of which, state of food security was better before 1997, and state of food insecurity appeared more frequently after 1997. So it is urgent to establish long-term effective mechanism of ensuring food security in Hunan.By the method of seminars, field visits, questionnaires etc., results of inverstigation showed that the grain production of Dingcheng District Changde City and Liuyang City were in good condition, but there were more hidden problems affecting food security about cultivated land protection, land transfer and grain production, circulation and reserves, and other practical ways and means. Establishment of grain security mechanisms obtained from the current problems should consider various factors, such as focus on improving and innovative mechanisms for cultivated land protection, production, distribution and storage sectors combined, food security policies and related measures with a reasonable etc.