Research On The Impact Of Grain Imports On China's Grain Security And Guarantee Efficiency

As the most important issue concerning the national economy and people's livelihood,Grain security is very important.However,the issue of grain security is also a worldwide problem.Due to the imbalances in resource endowments and technological development all over the world,it is impossible for a country or a region to guarantee its own national grain security alone.With the development of global economic globalization and regionalization,the international grain trade has also developed rapidly.To a certain extent,international grain trade has balanced the supply and demand of international grain and has played a positive role in the guarantee of world grain security.In recent years,despite the unprecedented "12 consecutive increases" in grain output in China,grain security in China still faces a severe form.The "modest importation of grain" and the full use of the international grain market and international grain resources to guarantee national grain security have also become an important means of national grain security guarantee.However,with the opening up of the China's grain market.The scale of grain imports has been increasing.China has been transformed from a net grain exporter to a net grain importer.Net grain imports have also become the "new normal" in the current grain trade in China.While the large imports of grain meets the domestic grain supply and demand gap,and it guarantees national grain security,there are also some problems such as the surge in the scale of grain imports,the irrational structure of imported varieties,the high degree of import dependence,the excessively concentrated sources and the weak international discourse power and so on.These problems make China's grain imports more and more dangerous and pose a potential threat to China's grain security.The increasingly severe form of international grain also makes the connection between grain import and China's grain security more and more closely.The research on grain import to the guarantee of China's grain security is also more of an academic value.This research is based on the new national grain security strategy which is "taking me as the main part,based on domestic production,ensuring capacity,moderate import,and scientific and technological support".From the important means of "proper import" of this country's grain security guarantee,this paper studies the problem of grain import to China's grain security guarantee,and breakthrough the original thinking of studying China's grain trade from the perspective of grain security,the research of China's grain trade has made the problem more specific and practical.This paper summarizes the current situation and problems of China's grain import and grain security,evaluates the situation of China's grain security by analytic hierarchy process;analysis the impact of grain import on graom security,and examines the correlation between grain import and food security by Eviews 8.0.The long-term and short-term impacts of grain imports on China's grain security were empirically tested by co-integration analysis;builds a path analysis model of the impact mechanism of grain import on China's grain security based on SEM Approach,empirical tests the impact path of grain import on China's grain security.By using the super efficient DEA method and the Malmquist index method,the static and dynamic guarantee efficiency of grain import to China's grain security are measured respectively,and the significance of each index is tested by the construction of the T statistics.The specific research contents of this research are as follows: In the first part,this chapter mainly introduces the research background,research purpose and significance,and combs the theoretical and academic research development of grain import and grain security at home and abroad,analyzes the latest progress in the research of grain import and grain security,and reviews the related research to find out the weak links in the research of grain import and grain security,and determine the breakthrough point of this research.In the second part,this chapter mainly defines the concepts of grain,grain security and grain security and the measurement dimensions of grain security,and elaborates the relevant theoretical basis of this study,clarifies the research scope and research basis of this study.In the third part,this chapter mainly analyzes the current situation of grain import in China,including grain import scale,grain import structure,import dependence degree,import market source,international status of grain trade and so on,and summarizes the main problems of China's grain import face in the past ten years.In the fourth part,this chapter analyses the status of China's grain security from four aspects,such as grain production safety,grain circulation security,grain consumption security,grain sustainable security security,evaluates the China's grain security during the period 1992-2016 based on the analytic hierarchy process.And then,we summarizes the existing problems of grain security in China.In the fifth part,this chapter uses the supply and demand mechanism,price mechanism,food safety connotation and resource substitution as the theoretical basis,and uses descriptive statistical analysis from four aspects: grain production safety,grain circulation security,grain consumption security,and grain sustainable security.This part explored the direction of grain import impact on China's grain security;using Eviews8.0 software to empirically test the significant correlation between grain import scale,grain import structure,grain import price,grain import dependence and grain import concentration and China's grain security.And using Johansen co-integration analysis to empirically test the long-term impact of grain imports on China's grain security,constructing a UECM model to empirically test the short-term impact of grain imports on China's grain security;and then based on SEM method to construct a food import impact on China's grain security Analyze the model,and then empirically test the impact of grain imports on China's grain security.In the sixth part,this chapter uses the super-efficiency DEA method and the Malmquist index method to measure the static and dynamic efficiency of grain imports to China's grain security during 1992-2016,and the static and dynamic trends of grain import in China from 1992 to 2016 were analyzed.,and through the method of constructing T statistics,and empirically test the significance of grain imports to China's grain security assurance efficiency indicators.In the seventh part,this chapter mainly puts forward the optimization strategy of China's grain import to ensure national grain security from the aspects of grain import policy,import scale,import structure,import price and import source.In the eighth part,this chapter summarizes the main conclusions of this study,and outlooks the extension of related research in the future.