Research On Risk Evaluation And Investment Strategy Of Enterprise Human Capital Investment

Human capital theory has become"one of the most useful theories in practice"since its establishment in sixties of 20th, and been used widely in theories such as population economy, labour economy, development economy, system economy. Contries, enterprises and individuals invest a lot on human capital investment because of its big distribution.At the same time, human capital investment is a high-risk activity. The risk that the anticipated profit can not be attained in reality always exists because of indefinite elements. At present, the risk research of human capital investment has drawn more and more researchers'attention, but there is still something unsatisfactory such as less model analysis, no theory accepted widely is taken as a foundation for risk recognition of human capital investment, risk evaluation has not been combined tightly with requirements of the enterprise, how the investors will chose their strategies in the portfolio and staged investment of human capital has not been researched intensively. This thesis is trying to find some resolutions for the topics mentioned above and do some research on risk recognition, risk evaluation, investment strategies of enterprise human capital investment.All the reseach is based on two points of view. One is"four stages"of the investment which augues that most human capital investment can be divided into four stages with the spread of investment. The four stages are investment planning, the formation of human capital, the allocation of human capital and the use of human capital; The other one is"three hierarchies"of the risk which argues that the investment risks can be recognized from three hierarchies which are accidents, causes and signals according to the method of risk elements, risk accidents and risk afteraffects in risk theory.About the risk recognition. First of all, the reasons why the risks exist are stated from the view of right economy, information economy, behavior economy. Then the risk elements are distinguished from different stages and different hierarchies on the basis of"four stages"and"three hierarchies". These risk elements are also the basis of establishment of the risk index and risk evalution in the further research.About the risk evaluation. The goal of the risk evaluation should be to get the cost risk, the profit risk and integrated risk. The thesis gives two examples how to evaluate the risk of the enterprise human capital investment from the three aspects. The evaluation of cost and profit risks is accomplished by Monte Carlo simulation method. The investment network which has to be established needed in the simulation is based on the"four stages". In the simulation, the cost and profit of the investment are taken as random variables and their probability distribution curves are the outputs. The integrated risk evaluation uses the risk index. The evalution results are numbers which can describe the level of the existing risk and the index which affect the risk most.About the investment strategies. Portfolio and staged investments are two efficient ways to decrease the risk of venture investment. Human capital investment is venture investment. This thesis takes the portfolio and staged investment of human capital in enterprise as research emphases. As for portfolio, after discussing six forms of portfolio, a profit game model is set up for the investment in which the firm and employee are both taken as the investors. The analyse result is that the portfolio is influenced by risk, the cost used to recruit new employee if the old ones leave, and other relavant variables. The portfolio should be equal to the profit allocator between two investors under certain circumstance. As for the staged investment, under the hypothesis that both the firm and employee affluence the other when they chose their investment strategies. The staged investment models of the three stages apart from the planning stage are set up so that we can draw a series of conclusions from them. The results tell us that the profit allocator is a key element to the strategies the firm and employee will take. The other elements such as the capability of the both sides, the dependence on each other, the uncertainty also affect their strategies in different stages as well. The conclusions give the investors decision supports for better investment.