Research On The Debt Risk Of The Local Universities New Campus Building

Since the new century, there is a wave of colleges and universities new campus construction across the country. In the process of that, most colleges and universities fund by the way of bank loan. With the continuous expansion of the construction scale and excessive liabilities beyond the ability to pay, many colleges and universities soon fell into the heavy debt crisis. Recently, the call for resolving the debt risk in colleges and universities have rising, governments at all levels actively involved. In the year 2009,That the resolving the debt risk should be as the main work of the year was first proposed by the Ministry of education, the local government responding and specially convening meetings to deploy the debt risk anesis. However, due to reasons, the debt risk remission in the local colleges and universities that play the main role in the process of the higher education popularization in China have been lagging and strugging. That of the local colleges and universities is the main.the work paying attention to resolving the debt risk of local colleges and universities is not only directly related to the overall, but also related to the consolidation of results of the higher education popularization in China. For this reason, this paper have the complete and systematic study on the debt risk of the new campus construction by ways such as the empirical analysis,the comparative analysis, systems analysis and policy analysis, and so on. Main work and study results are:1.By building the C-D function model,the 3.05% that the contribution of the higher education infrastructure investment to the economic growth among the 1980-2008 years is estimated out;by the Feder model,the result is estimated that the higher education sector infrastructure investment increase by 1%, not considering the effect of other factors, the output of the non-higher education sector increase by 1.168%; by the Panel-date model,that the effect of higher education infrastructure investment on the regional economic growth is obvious proved. Therefore, the capital construction investment contribution in the local colleges and universities to economic growth is significant. However,with the investment scale expanding, the inflection point on may appear due to the economic marginal effects. Therefore, the rational investment scale should be determined according to the practical need of economic and social development, avoiding investment jam.2. The year 2007, the debt scale of the local colleges and universities has reached 211.3 billion, accounting for 78.6% of the total, each equally 140 million Yuan,19 provinces in which have reached 5 billion yuan; and because some infrastructure projects still largely need follow-up funds, some partly engineering arrears, so the total debt scale may be more. This fully shows that that of the local colleges and universities is the main. Then,Using the archetype analysis technology from the system dynamics, building the Limits to Growth and Escalation risk archetypes, and the Shifting the Buroden,the Fixes and Fail,the Success to the Successful risk archetypes, this chapter have a dynamic analysis to the debt risk problems derived from the campus construction loaned.3. The debt risk of local colleges and universities is a product of financing mode reform of higher education in China, through the perspective evolution of it. There exists a significant reverse relation between the resource utilization efficiency in colleges and universities and the debt risk,by data envelopment analysis.and constructing a game model of soft budget constraint and debt risk, the chapter have a finds that the soft budget,if the local colleges and universities bear the heavy policy burden, is very serious, universities managers easy making adverse selection, loaning always more than the appropriate; and whether managers are efforts to resolve the debt risk in colleges and universities, eventually, the Government will always provide funding or help schools to resolve debt. Therefore, the source of the debt risk generated in the infrastructure construction of the local colleges and universities is mutual coupling result of the higher education financing model, resource utilization efficiency as well as the soft budget.4. The debt risk of provinces and universities sampled is comprehensively evaluated.based on the construction of evaluation index system, the factor analysis and the cluster analysis methods combined with.Evaluation result indicate that:the debt risk of each province from small to large can be polied into five classes:the first is Jiangsu, Guangdong and Shanghai;the second is Beijing, Shandong and Zhejiang; the third is Fujian,Jiangxi,Tianjin,Sichuan,Hubei,Shanxi,Heilongjiang,Hebei,Hunan, Liaoning and Henan; the fourth is Guangxi,Chongqing,Shanxi,Jilin,NeiMenggu, Anhui,Ningxia,Xinjiang, Guizhou,Yunnan and Gansu; the fifth is Hainan, Tibet and Qinghai; the each of the local Universities debt risk sampled from small to large can be polied into four classes:the first is U-3, U-9, U-13 and U-10; the second is U-5, U-15, U-8, U-7, U-11, U-12 and U-16;the third is U-2, U-6, U-4 and U-14; the last is U-1.5. Based on the resolving experience learning of the state-owned enterprise and compulsory education debt, the resolving principals of the debt share of the central and local government and local universities, combination of fairness and prominence given to the key points, the current and long-term phase integrated with should be followed; the debt-resolving strategies of strictly controlling new project and the loan increased, recombining the debt structure, subsiding the financial interest or partially reimbursing credit, normally selling the empty campus, establishing a special reward fund for debt resolution; enhancing the resource utilization; normalizing the financial management in the pirate academy, steadily increasing the financial appropriation for high education, building a long-term mechanism of risk prevention.6. The control study result on the effectiveness of policies implementation related with the debt risk show that that of the typical areas has been effectively controlled and mitigated by implementation of the policies.