| Hog industry plays a very important role in the structure of China's animal husbandry. On the one hand, pork is a principal source of animal products, and its output has a large proportion in the total output of meat, so the development of the hog industry will help improve the quality of residents'life. On the other hand, the hog industry has a close connection with other aspects of the national economy, such as the income of farmers, transferring of surplus rural labor and feed industry development. However, since 1985, the feature of cyclical fluctuation is more and more obvious, and the amplitude expanded continuously, this phenomenon has caused a serious negative impact on China's pig producers, consumers and other aspects, so it is necessary to study on the characteristics of pig production fluctuation and its causes.Characteristics and causes of fluctuation are the important parts of this study, the characteristics of fluctuation is represented as cycle and synchronization, and the circulation refers to the pig production fluctuated around the long-run trend, while the synchronization means that the fluctuation occur simultaneously on the different regional level. The production fluctuation is caused by internal factors and external factors, which influence the fluctuation is different in impact, mechanism and process.In order to fully reveal the relative law of hog production fluctuation process, on the base of the existing literature and theories, a combination of the qualitative and quantitative methods are used, the characteristics of circulation and synchronization, the causes and the mechanism of hog production fluctuation are studied, to provide some references for establishing and improving the early warning system of hog production fluctuation. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:1.The statistical characteristics of hog production and price fluctuation. On the base of the second agricultural census data, we found that the"false elements"of hog production data satisfied the linear growth law, and then we established a method of"linear correction model"to correct and adjust the hog production data from 1985 to 1995. Based on the method of HP filter, we analyzed the statistical characteristics of hog production and price fluctuation, the results are: he hog production fluctuation (1952-2007) can be divided into eight complete cycles, the average length is 6.88 years; the period of production growth is longer than the decline period in the eight cycles. The average cycle length was getting longer in this period, and the amplitude showed a"U"type trend, decreased in the period of 1952 to 1988, and expanded in the period of 1989 to 2008. The price fluctuation (1978-2006) is divided into seven complete cycles, the average length is 4 years; length of the 3-year fluctuation occurred 3 times, the rate was 42.86%; the cycle length of price was also getting longer; compared the production and price fluctuation by variation rate, found three characteristics: firstly, the amplitude of price variation rate was greater than production indicator; secondly, the amplitude of price variation rate was getting reduced, and the amplitude of production variation rate was getting expanded; thirdly, the synchronization coefficient of production and price variation rate was 0.5833.2.Research on the dynamic relationship between hog production and price fluctuation. Based on the cobweb theory, this paper discussed the relationship between them by the method of co-integration and vector auto-regressive model, the results are: established the long-term relationship between the production and price by the theories of EG two-step method and J-J test. And then established the vector autoregressive model, the results of impulse response analysis and variance decomposition showed that the response to the shock of production is longer than the price; price response to the price shock is longer than the production, and the response is positive; production response to the production shock is longer than the price, and the response is positive; at the 5% significance level, the result of Granger causality test showed that production is the Granger causality of price, and the price is the Granger causality of production.3.Research on the periodic characteristic of hog production fluctuation. The long-term trend of the slaughter pigs were fitted by exponential model, it showed that the long-term trend of the amount of slaughter pigs will double in every 15.58 years, and this time interval is gradually reduced. Periodic characteristic of hog production fluctuation was studied by using the principle of periodic analysis, at the significance level of 0.70, the periodic formula can contain more than 90% of fluctuation information. The component of hog production fluctuation is divided into five types, the type one appeared almost 32 times, its probability is 56.14%. Forecast the fluctuation component, we predicted that it will take place three processes of fluctuation in the time period of 2009-2015.4.Research on the pathway of hog production fluctuation. According to the"synchronization"concept and measurement, we found three pathways of hog production fluctuation. The first pathway is hogs fluctuation, the synchronization coefficient of Central and southern China and the whole nation is the highest, which reach to 0.9286, and Hunan province has the highest coefficient with this region. The second pathway is slaughtered fattened hogs fluctuation, the Central and southern China has the highest coefficient, and the coefficient of Guangdong province and this region is the highest. The third pathway is pork fluctuation, and three regions have the highest coefficient with the whole nation, which reach to 1, and Hebei Province, Guangdong Province and Sichuan Province have the highest coefficient with its corresponding region.5.Research on the hog production fluctuation process based on the FSFR model. Established the FSFR model, which includes four aspects"factors, structure, fluctuation, response"of fluctuation, it can fully reflect the fluctuation of hog production process. The relationship between the factors and fluctuation showed that the external factors can affect the fluctuation directly, but also influence the fluctuation through the internal factors indirectly. The nearly production fluctuation was analyzed by using FSFR model, which explained the relationship between the growth process and the decline process. Found that the main factors in the recent times production fluctuation have two aspects, the first one is that the pig epidemic occurred in a large area; the second one is that the macro-control measures were not fit.6.A warning system of hog production fluctuation. Based on the research conclusions, constructs a warning system of hog production fluctuation, and provides some measurements to ease the fluctuation: improving the accuracy of statistical data; coordinating the macro-control measures in different levels of government; strengthening the pig disease epidemic prevention system; improving the organization and industrialization of hog production; perfecting the early warning system of production fluctuation; stabilizing the production fluctuation by forward transactions.
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