Study On The Life Cycle Integrated Risk Management And Decision-making Of Cross-country Pipeline

In recent years, China has been developing cross-country pipelines, which is regarded as an important act of the oil and gas diversified supply strategy. Compared with ordinary long distance pipelines, risk management of the cross-country pipelines face many new problems and challenges. Therefore, this dissertation conducts an integration research on risk management and decision-making of the cross-country pipeline at different phases of its life cycle. The main innovation of this dissertation is as follows.1. Based on the analysis of characteristics of the cross-country pipeline risk, this dissertation introduces the life cycle integrated risk management theory into risk management of the cross-country pipeline. The life cycle of the cross-country pipeline is divided into three phases: pre-construction phase, construction phase, and operation phase. A life cycle integrated risk management mode of the cross-country pipeline is proposed. Then, a system of risk assessment indexes, corresponding risk assessment methods and risk response measures are established under the framework of the integrated risk management mode. Thus, this dissertation finishes the comprehensive identification, assessment and management of the cross-country pipeline project risk at different phases with different characteristics and different qualities.2. According to the decision-making requirements of relevant bodies at the pre-construction phase of the cross-country pipeline, which are comparison and selection of pipeline proposals or alternatives, the solution is given from the perspective of risk analysis and management. On the other hand, TOPSIS model is introduced into alternatives selection. Through analyzing the special meanings of weighting for the indexes in alternative selection decision-making, this dissertation establishes an alternative selection decision-making method based on combination weighting TOPSIS, which is applied into the comparison and selection of pipeline proposals or alternatives at the pre-construction phase of the cross-country pipeline. And a case study is given, showing compared with the existing methods, the method proposed in this dissertation has better differentiation degree and decision accuracy.3. This dissertation establishes an integrated risk management method based on EPC contract mode for the cross-country pipeline at its construction phase. It includes a whole set of multiple and dynamic risk management modules and assessment index systems; a risk assessment method built with integration of Delphi, Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process(FAHP), Risk Matrix Method and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model; a muliti-hierarchy integrated risk management process. The integrated risk management method is able to realize the total management of risk during the whole course of the construction of the cross-country pipeline, improve the reliability of risk assessment, and strengthen the assistance of quantitative risk assessment in project management and decision-making.4. In the study on risk management of the cross-country pipeline at its operation phase, Kent pipeline risk assessment model is improved based on the reliability theory and statistical methods, and the application process of the improved model in risk assessment of the cross-country pipeline is given. According to the shortcomings of existing pipeline safety(risk) assessment methods, which overemphasize the technological factors and undervalue the human and management factors, an operation safety assessment index system for the cross-country pipeline is established based on the integration of man-machine-material-method-environment. According to the drawbacks of grey relational analysis model with constant weights, this dissertation introduces the punishing variable weight method into the model, and proposes a grey relational decision-making model based on variable weight and TOPSIS method, which has more reasonable and reliable decision-making results than existing methods shown by a case study; then, it is applied into muliti-hierarchy safety assessment according to the integrated safety assessment index system built earlier, resulting in a muliti-hierarchy safety assessment method based on the integration of variable weight -TOPSIS-GRA, and a case study on operation safety assessment of four pipelines shows the method proposed in this dissertation is reliable and practical. Furthermore, this dissertation establishes a pipeline operation muliti-hierarchy safety assessment method based on SVM model.5. Finally, an integration framework of life cycle risk management information system for the cross-country pipeline is proposed, and a life cycle integrated risk management system for the cross-country pipeline is designed and developed.This dissertation is part of the research results of the seventh special topic of"Study on Development and Utilization Risk Assessment Technology of Oversea Oil/gas and Mineral Resources"(No.2006BAB08B01), supported by"Eleventh Five-year"National Science and Technology Supporting Project from China Ministry of Science and Technology(MOST).