| PPP (Public Private Partnership) has become an important direction of infrastructure investment and financing reform because of the demand in new urbanization construction and "new normal" economic development state of China. Transportation projects'investment scale are big, range are wide and risks between participants are complex. From the early stage of transportation PPP projects to construction stage then to operation stage,all phases accompanied by key risk decision making problems. These key risk decision making problems are different and cannot be treat as the same. This paper combed out key risk decision problems from every phase of transportation PPP project's whole life cycle.According to four typical transportation projects: Wenzhou oujiang beikou comprehensive traffic PPP project, the second ring highway PPP project of Chengdu, metro line 18 PPP project of Chengdu and Xihoumen bridge as examples, this paper studied key risk decision making problems in different stages of transportation projects' life cycle.1.On the basis of literature research and case analysis, identify the preliminary list of risk, use expert interview method to improve the initial listing then obtained the risk list of transportation PPP projects. Obtained data from questionnaire survey, use one half data samples do the exploratory factor analysis and divid risk factors into eight new dimension,use the method of maximum variance to rotate component matrix, name the common factors, use the other half data samples do the confirmatory factor analysis and verify the effectiveness of common factors.2.In order to solve the risk allocation problems of transportation PPP projects early stage phase, use the risk list got from preamble as the evaluation index system, built a set of suitable for the PPP project risk index evaluation system, designed a risk allocation scheme decision making method risk based on cloud model. Use a cycle improvement rate method depending on the thickness of the cloud to solve the problem of raditional scheme comparison methods which in the result correct advices from minority experts could been ignored. Draw evaluation clouds of risk sharing schemes waiting for review then compare with the referen cloud, choose the one which has the largest similarity as the optimal solution. Combined with the second ring highway PPP project of Chengdu as example,confirmed the effectiveness of the method.3.In order to solve the problem of financing plan decision making problems of the early stage phase of transportation PPP projects, built a set of financing index evaluation system and an alternative financing method based on rough set theory which are suitable for transportation PPP projects, aimed at the disadvantages of traditional data discretization method,introduce the method of GASA to solve the problem of data's low support after discretize and affect the accuracy of decision-making. Not only the applicability and reliability is higher, put the weight into traditional GRA evaluation method to calculate the weighted grey correlation degree also improved the accuracy of GRA method. combined with the metro line 18 PPP project of Chengdu as example, confirmed the effectiveness of the method.4.In order to solve the problem of risk countermeasures decision making on construction phase of projects, built the corresponding dynamic risk SD model based on the analysis of transportation PPP projects construction phase risk elements, tested the SD model by VensimDSS software combined with the second ring highway PPP project of Chengdu and simulated the impact on whole project process by risk element and risk ripple.Through the single factor influence, multi-factor coupling effect analysis and policy design through three analysis angle, this paper discusses the different risk coping strategies in improving the effect of whole project objectives.5.In order to solve the problem of emergency risk decision making problems of operation stage of transportation PPP projects, built a set of transportation PPP projects operation stage emergency risk decision making support system based on the technology of GPS, RS and PDA, with Visual Studio 2005, SQL server2005 database software as tools,combined the actual data to give the specific application process of the system.Research results of this paper can provide reference to different life cycle stages' key risk decision making problems of any large complex transportation PPP project. |
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