Whole Life-cycle Risk Assessment Of Energy Management Contract

Contract energy management as a new type of commercial energy management mode with full application of market mechanism. It is based on the establishment of a complex set of contractual relationships between energy saving service companies and energy users, it can reduce the cost of energy effectively and improve the energy utilization efficiency of the energy saving mode. It is not only the promotion of energy-saving products and technology, but also a reduction of energy costs of management technology, financial management. It is an important method to promote the construction of ecological civilization. However, because of the complexity and incompleteness of the business processes and contracts in contract energy management projects, there are many risk sources in the contract energy management project implementation process and restricting the smooth implementation of the contract energy management project seriously. Therefore, this thesis systematically identifies and scientifically evaluates the risks of the whole life-cycle of the contract energy management project. The main innovative work of this thesis is as follows:(1)This thesis systematically reviews the relevant theoretical literature of contract energy management. On the basis of scientifically defining the risk connotation of contract energy management project,this paper systematically summarizes the basic implementation steps of the main operation mode of contract energy management.This paper designs a new work flow of contract energy management project which is based on the life cycle. Based on the whole life cycle theory, the project is divided into four stages: the pre-implementation demand analysis, the implementation plan design,operation and regulation, and the completion of the contract. Then, by using the flow chat method, the paper designs a more scientific and more comprehensive project business process. and this paper continue overall analysis the process of the whole life-cycle of contract energy management, establish the flow chart of the project and the various stages of the flow chart, showing the all activities of project. It summarizes the main work steps, the key link of the project, which will convenient for the user to check the process of work and the manager can find the problem and adjust the process in time.This form of business process and risk framework is an open risk identification system which can be developed,accumulated and summarized,the results obtained as the basis and foundation for the follow-up work.(2)It establishes the total risk identification and risk evaluation index system of contract energy management project based on the whole life cycle. WBS-RBS (Work Breakdown Structure, Risk Breakdown Structure) method and Delphi method were carried out on the contract energy management project Risk identification, through the detailed analysis of the project, the achievement is divided into different parts which can be control easily. On the basis of this, the risk identification and analysis of each task is carried out, and it will solve the risk identification problem which caused by traditional random method. It fully considers the dynamic relationship between the various stages of the project and the risk, to overcome the risk as a static, single-phase emergence and independent of each other. And it refines the stages of whole life-cycle of the contract energy management project, each phase of the work task corresponds to the risks that may occur at this stage, construct the risk assessment index system of each stage of the contract energy management project, and give detailed analysis of various types of risk sources.(3)This paper constructs the comprehensive evaluation model of the risk of contract energy management project. The risk of contract energy management project is a typical multi-attribute information fusion problem, and there are a lot of uncertainties in the evaluation. This article uses the AHP and evidence theory to solve uncertain problems.AHP analysis method mainly solve the evaluation to determine the index weight, and evidence theory as a multi-source information fusion tool can solve the information fusion problem of uncertainty in the process. At the same time, we use the whitening right function to obtain the basic credibility when dealing with the quantitative index,and solve the problem of the consistency of the mixed attribute. And it uses an energy saving and service company as a case study object, verify that the build the framework of risk identification and risk assessment model is effective, there has been a significant improvement compared with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation(FCE)In terms of evaluating uncertainty and accuracy.This thesis studies the whole life cycle risk assessment of contract energy management project. Which can promote conservation service company, customers and other stakeholders to improve risk awareness. This research can help companies implement effective risk management, achieve expected the target named energy-saving emission reduction and protect the ecological environment at the same time achieves the maximization of benefit, escort for the construction of ecological civilization.