Study On National Coal Emergency Reserve Scale And Layout

Applying knowledge of economics, management science, wave theory andphysical field theory and also some relative methods such as wavelet analysis method,field force model, the optimization methods and econometrics etc., this paperconstruct a theory framework of coal emergency reserve. In accordance with the"from top to bottom, from gross to structure" research ideas, national coal emergencyreserve scale andlayout are explored, we then put forward some policyrecommendations for the national coal emergency reserve.We next buildthe national coal emergency reserve basic model (where the coaldemand reflected by deterministic fluctuations and reserve days reflected by uncertainvolatility) to research the national emergency coal reserves scale.Results wereobtained that the optimal emergency reserve is equal to16days coal demand, that is,4%-5%of the current year total coal demand.In the reserve scale gross affirmatory premise, taking coal flow rule intoconsideration, we determined the emergency needs point and alternative reservepoints.Targeting the shortest response time and minimum emergency response costsand considering the reserve scale, emergency restriction period, emergency reservedouble capacity limit, multi path etc. constraint condition, this paper build a coalemergency reserve multi objective integer programming model.Considering differentcapacity constraints (10million tons and800tons) and different total number ofreserve points (30and25reserve points) and other scenarios, we work out thelocation results under different scenarios. And then, we compare the results and selectthe best location plan: the total reserve point number less than or equal to25andcapacity less than or equal to1000.Based on the above research conclusion and the emergency organization theories,this paper put forward some policy recommendations to the national coal emergencyreserve scale, coal emergency reserve throughput and rotation time, coal emergencyreserve layout.